6998 Us 421 S · Goldston, NC 27207

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1981 2.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Farmhouse-Style Retreat on Over 2 Acres - Ready for Your Vision! Welcoming front porch with its durable brick flooring. Serene vistas over rolling farmlands from the back deck. Inside, the heart of the home a large, inviting fireplace that anchors the family room, promising cozy gatherings year-round. Second fireplace in upstairs bonus room. The thoughtful layout includes a convenient primary bedroom on the main level for easy one-floor living, plus two additional bedrooms and a versatile bonus room upstairs--plenty of space for family, guests, hobbies, or a home office. Set on more than 2 acres of land, this property provides ample room to garden, add outbuildings, or simply enjo

Key facts

• Second fireplace
• Front porch
• Large fireplace

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BRICK FLOORING
• BACK DECK
• LARGE FIREPLACE
• SECOND FIREPLACE
• UPSTAIRS BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Site-built home; Two levels; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Living area approximately 2,010; Above grade finished area approximately 2,010; No below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Above-ground pool; Outbuilding on the property; Property not waterfront; Road frontage on highway (public maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total, 1 on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas pack); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Two wood-burning fireplaces (family room and recreation room); Has a crawl space basement; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-237/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#323 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonlee School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 292 students, 61% FRL); Chatham Central High (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #270 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 364 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,121 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $56,831
• Equity at exit: $134,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $169,939
• Equity at exit: $237,465

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27207

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $796/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $221,509

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $44	+0% $-20	+5% $-83	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-86	+0% $-20	+5% $46	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $37	base $-20	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,049/yr (+$87/mo · 131.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$796
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,371
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3390
• State rank: #68 of 178 in NC

Livability — Goldston

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #13259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,129

Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,640 people
• By 2030: 90,521 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 99,791 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 106,565 · +25.9%
• By 2075: 119,165 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 122,958 · +45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+12.5) · D 55.7% · R 43.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.5 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+10.1 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 320.9154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $225,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $796 · +31.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.