Aruba Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$226,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Major roadways
• Parks

Tags

• OPEN AIR RECREATION CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PARKS
• SCENIC LAKES
• MAJOR ROADWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $226,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,155.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,155
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -15.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1519 Amber Skies Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	82
1514 Marigold Bend Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,572 (0%)	3mo	$232,990	$148	82
1518 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-3%)	4mo	$210,990	$139	79
1542 Golden Iris Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-7%)	0mo	$193,990	$133	77
18807 Sage River Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+2%)	1mo	$324,990	$202	75
1558 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+5%)	4mo	$207,990	$126	73
1550 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+5%)	3mo	$211,990	$128	72
18611 Periwinkle Brook Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	2mo	$195,990	$135	72
18614 Periwinkle Brook Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-7%)	2mo	$193,990	$133	70
1539 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	3mo	$227,990	$130	62
1723 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+14%)	1mo	$251,990	$141	62
2103 Antler Trails Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+9%)	3mo	$245,000	$143	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,201
• Equity at exit: $40,281

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-84,073
• Equity at exit: $23,358

Cash invested: $75,643 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 83 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $243,990 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,052/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $237,612

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-132	+0% $-225	+5% $-318	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-307	+0% $-225	+5% $-143	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-156	base $-225	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,539
• Closing costs: $8,105
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1718 Primrose Pointe Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,000	$1.23	10d	1	0.20mi
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	165d	1	0.26mi
17435 Jolly Boat Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,620	$1.16	36d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $226,990 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $226,990 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $226,990 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $226,990 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $226,990 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $226,990 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $226,990 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $226,990 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $226,990 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $226,990 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $226,990 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $226,990 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $226,990 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $226,990 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $226,990 Active 252 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $226,990 Active 251 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $226,990 Active 250 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $218,990 Active 250 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $218,990 Active 249 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $218,990 Active 248 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $218,990 Active 247 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $218,990 Active 246 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $218,990 Active 245 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $218,990 Active 244 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $218,990 Active 243 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $218,990 Active 242 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $218,990 Active 241 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $218,990 Active 240 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $218,990 Active 239 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $218,990 Active 238 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $218,990 Active 237 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $218,990 Active 236 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $218,990 Active 235 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $218,990 Active 234 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $218,990 Active 233 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $218,990 Active 232 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $218,990 Active 231 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $218,990 Active 230 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $218,990 Active 229 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $218,990 Active 228 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $218,990 Active 227 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $218,990 Active 226 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $218,990 Active 225 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $218,990 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $218,990 Active 223 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $218,990 Active 222 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $218,990 Active 221 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $218,990 Active 220 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $218,990 Active 219 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $218,990 Active 218 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,133
• − Property taxes: −$4,052
• − Insurance: −$1,351
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$7,859
• Taxable loss: −$7,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,860–$23,580 screening

This modern and low-maintenance home offers a spacious and well-designed interior with a good condition exterior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $289,990 Zillow