3721 Star Mesa St #16 · Heartland, TX 75114

$227,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,775 sqft · Townhouse · 209 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2,010 sqft lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $250k · 9% under $291/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21119419 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover your future home in the Heartland Townhomes subdivision, where modern living meets convenience. This traditional townhouse, with an estimated completion date of March 31, 2026, features 1,775 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, including three spacious primary bedrooms and three bathrooms—two full and one half. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the practical interior features such as double vanities, walk-in closets, and a pantry, complemented by central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal for relaxation. With a two-car garage, this residence combines style and functionality. Located in the esteemed Crandall ISD, with schools nearby, this home is a perfect blend of comfort and accessibility.

Key facts

• Crandall isd
• Open floorplan
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• COVERED PATIO
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING
• CRANDALL ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.00%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,156
• List price: $227,990
• Delta: -8.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3723 Star Mesa St #16	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,754 (-1%)	1mo	$260,990	$149	97
3719 Star Mesa St #16	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,757 (-1%)	2mo	$259,990	$148	96
3727 Star Mesa St #16	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,794 (+1%)	2mo	$259,990	$145	96
3717 Star Mesa St #15	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,764 (-1%)	6mo	$245,990	$139	93
3703 Star Mesa #14	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,770 (-0%)	6mo	$242,990	$137	93
3713 Star Mesa #15	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,752 (-1%)	6mo	$243,990	$139	92
3709 Star Mesa St #14	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,757 (-1%)	7mo	$245,990	$140	91
3711 Star Mesa St #15	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,749 (-2%)	7mo	$247,990	$142	91
3702 Star Mesa #12	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,785 (+1%)	8mo	$262,990	$147	90
3715 Star Mesa St #15	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,691 (-5%)	5mo	$248,990	$147	87
3701 Star Mesa #14	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,711 (-4%)	8mo	$269,990	$158	85
3915 Hometown Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+5%)	0mo	$235,000	$126	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-43,497
• Equity at exit: $33,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,724
• Equity at exit: $19,712

Cash invested: $63,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$291
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $212,621

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-27	+0% $-106	+5% $-185	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-194	+0% $-106	+5% $-18	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-48	base $-106	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,998
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.11mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	45d	1	0.16mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	0.40mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	8d	1	0.42mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	45d	1	0.49mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.58mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.58mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$2,600	$1.05	22d	1	0.59mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.59mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	45d	1	0.60mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.60mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.63mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.65mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.66mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.68mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	0d	1	0.72mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	45d	1	0.80mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.88mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.91mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,769	$1.06	0d	1	0.93mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	20d	1	0.93mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	4d	1	0.94mi
4009 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2515	$2,499	$0.99	45d	1	1.00mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	1.01mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	1.02mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	3d	1	1.03mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	8d	1	1.03mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	26d	1	1.04mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	17d	1	1.07mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	1.13mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	1.13mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	26d	1	1.14mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	4d	1	1.16mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	45d	1	1.17mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	1.18mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	1.18mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.22mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	26d	1	1.22mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	4d	1	1.23mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $291 · $3,492/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,990 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,990 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,990 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,990 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,990 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,990 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,990 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $227,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,990 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,990 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,990 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,990 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,990 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    price $242,990 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    MLS# 21119419 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover your future home in the Heartland Townhomes subdivision, where modern living meets convenience. This traditional townhouse, with an estimated completion date of March 31, 2026, features 1,775 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, including three spacious primary bedrooms and three bathrooms—two full and one half. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the practical interior features such as double vanities, walk-in closets, and a pantry, complemented by central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal for relaxation. With a two-car garage, this residence combines style and functionality. Located in the esteemed Crandall ISD, with schools nearby, this home is a perfect blend of comfort and accessibility.

16. 2026-02-19
    price $253,990 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    MLS# 21119419 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover your future home in the Heartland Townhomes subdivision, where modern living meets convenience. This traditional townhouse, with an estimated completion date of March 31, 2026, features 1,775 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, including three spacious primary bedrooms and three bathrooms—two full and one half. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the practical interior features such as double vanities, walk-in closets, and a pantry, complemented by central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal for relaxation. With a two-car garage, this residence combines style and functionality. Located in the esteemed Crandall ISD, with schools nearby, this home is a perfect blend of comfort and accessibility.

17. 2025-12-11
    price $254,990 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    MLS# 21119419 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover your future home in the Heartland Townhomes subdivision, where modern living meets convenience. This traditional townhouse, with an estimated completion date of March 31, 2026, features 1,775 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, including three spacious primary bedrooms and three bathrooms—two full and one half. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the practical interior features such as double vanities, walk-in closets, and a pantry, complemented by central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal for relaxation. With a two-car garage, this residence combines style and functionality. Located in the esteemed Crandall ISD, with schools nearby, this home is a perfect blend of comfort and accessibility.

18. 2025-11-24
    listed $264,990 Active 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    MLS# 21119419 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover your future home in the Heartland Townhomes subdivision, where modern living meets convenience. This traditional townhouse, with an estimated completion date of March 31, 2026, features 1,775 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, including three spacious primary bedrooms and three bathrooms—two full and one half. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the practical interior features such as double vanities, walk-in closets, and a pantry, complemented by central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal for relaxation. With a two-car garage, this residence combines style and functionality. Located in the esteemed Crandall ISD, with schools nearby, this home is a perfect blend of comfort and accessibility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,771
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − HOA: −$3,492
• − Depreciation: −$6,632
• Taxable loss: −$4,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is move-in ready with a good condition score and no visible repairs needed. Potential value can be increased with exterior painting, landscaping, smart home features, and kitchen backsplash upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $242,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $253,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $254,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $264,990 NTREIS