None · Candlewood Orchards, CT 06804

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.70 ac lot Est $451k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom, one bath ranch in need of repairs. Being sold "as-is".

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brookfield School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #61 of 153 in CT (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Huckleberry Hill Elementary School (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #280 of 553 statewide, top 51%, 527 students, 24% FRL); Whisconier Middle School (math 49% / reading 62%, grade B-, #63 of 175 statewide, top 36%, 782 students, 22% FRL); Brookfield High School (math 43% / reading 70%, grade C, #62 of 194 statewide, top 32%, 871 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 6% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.22%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $450,870
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Jackson Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+8%)	14mo	$495,000	$404	59
1 Allen Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+8%)	17mo	$405,000	$331	54
9 Clearview Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,040 (-8%)	20mo	$415,000	$399	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $825
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $54,218
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06804

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,364/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,434

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $785	-5% $714	+0% $644	+5% $573	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $515	+0% $644	+5% $772	+10% $900
Rate	-1.0pp $769	-0.5pp $707	base $644	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Kellogg St Brookfield, CT	3.0	2.5	1368	$3,500	$2.56	4d	1	0.39mi
5 Lilac Ln Brookfield, CT	3.0	2.0	1488	$4,100	$2.76	4d	1	0.57mi
101 Laurel Hill Rd Brookfield, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$3,194	$3.51	4d	33	1.19mi
277 Whisconier Rd Unit B Brookfield, CT	2.0	1.0	700	$2,300	$3.29	45d	1	1.37mi
887 Federal Rd Unit 5 Brookfield, CT	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,370	$2.28	45d	1	1.41mi
887 Federal Rd Brookfield, CT	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,300	$2.21	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,364 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,364 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$5,364
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,119
• − Management: −$3,119
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $4,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$997
• After-tax cash flow: $6,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookfield School District
• NCES district ID: 0900540
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $105,279
• Composite: 50.09/100
• National rank: #1907
• State rank: #61 of 153 in CT

Livability — Candlewood Orchards

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Candlewood Orchards, CT
• Population (ZIP): 17,871

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Estonian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.11%
• Current HPI: 327.215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $249,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,364 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.