16433 Pauhaska · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$509,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1997 0.32 ac lot Est $498k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A MUST SEE!! THIS BEAUTIFUL 4 BED 2 BATH HOME, FORMAL LIVING, FAMILY ROOM WITH FIREPLACE, DINING ROOM, COUNTRY KITCHEN WITH ISLAND, INDOOR LAUNDRY, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, AND THIS IS NOT ALL A SPARKLING INGROUND POOL WITH SPA. THIS HOME SITS AT THE END OF A CUL DE SAC. DON'T MISS OUT!!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor-sourced lot and living area information; Parcel information recorded

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway (concrete); Direct garage access; Garage door opener; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public (district) water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry at main level
• Construction: No common walls; No accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Private pool; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Gas and electric range; Formal dining area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; All bedrooms located on the main level; 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Main-floor full bath; Separate tub and shower in master bath; Double sinks in master bath; Bathtub; Shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level living; Main-level bedrooms and bathrooms; Private spa
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $477k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vanguard Preparatory (1,135 students, 69% FRL); Granite Hills High (1,759 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 537 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,996/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1069% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 57% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $510k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,597 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $497,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16409 Pauhaska Ct	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,010 (-1%)	6mo	$405,000	$201	87
16403 Cuyama Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,076 (+3%)	7mo	$485,000	$234	86
16375 Pauhaska Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,957 (-3%)	5mo	$425,000	$217	82
16944 Pauhaska Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,095 (+4%)	2mo	$590,000	$282	64
22712 Nalatapa Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,853 (-8%)	14mo	$500,000	$270	61
22433 South Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,927 (-5%)	18mo	$550,000	$285	59
16754 Pauhaska	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (-5%)	5mo	$430,000	$224	59
16213 Lake View Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (-9%)	13mo	$460,000	$249	59
16656 Nawakwa Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,834 (-9%)	15mo	$435,000	$237	57
22337 Waalew	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,853 (-8%)	2mo	$450,000	$243	57
22583 South Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-12%)	15mo	$495,000	$277	57
16970 Central Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (+0%)	14mo	$500,000	$246	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-84,545
• Equity at exit: $76,043

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-45,249
• Equity at exit: $44,095

Cash invested: $142,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 537
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,512/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,236

Max offer price $476,516

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $-45	+0% $-190	+5% $-334	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-347	+0% $-190	+5% $-32	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $-60	base $-190	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,500
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16100 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$7,900	$4.94	19d	1	1.14mi
16100 Navajo Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,450	$1.53	26d	1	1.14mi
17601 Sycamore Ln Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1580	$3,195	$2.02	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $509,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $509,999 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $509,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $509,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $509,999 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $509,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $509,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $509,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $509,999 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $509,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $509,999 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $509,999 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,512 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,512 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,568
• − Property taxes: −$5,512
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,836
• − Management: −$3,836
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$11,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,685
• After-tax cash flow: $410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+318.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $509,999 CRMLS
• 2006-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-18 Sold (MLS) $335,000 CRMLS
• 2006-01-18 Sold (MLS) $335,000 CRMLS
• 2005-12-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-12-08 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2005-11-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $374,900 CRMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $349,900 CRMLS
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-22 Sold (MLS) $310,000 CRMLS
• 1997-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,512 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.