3000 Poinciana Dr · Naples, FL 34105

$320,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1970 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity with significant renovation work already completed. This solid block construction home offers the chance to finish the final cosmetic touches and customize the property to your vision. Major improvements have already been completed, including a new metal roof, fresh stucco exterior, new windows and doors, updated electrical system with lighting rough-ins, and new drywall with interior texture throughout. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting living space with excellent natural light, while the renovated bathroom features stylish tile work already in place. The remaining improvements primarily consist of flooring, fixtures, and appliances, providing a

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Updated electrical
• Renovated bathroom

Tags

• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• NEW METAL ROOF
• FRESH STUCCO EXTERIOR
• NEW WINDOWS AND DOORS
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• RENOVATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $310k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,677/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.30%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $58,122
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $161,307
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,033/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,192
• Net cashflow: $1,911

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,258

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3511 Santiago Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$6,500	$3.61	23d	1	0.24mi
2581 Poinciana St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$9,000	$7.17	23d	1	0.26mi
3520 Bolero Way Unit 1325569P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$5,021	$3.59	13d	1	0.50mi
500 Misty Pines Cir #206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$6,000	$4.76	13d	1	0.74mi
500 Misty Pines Cir Unit 2-204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$5,750	$4.56	13d	1	0.74mi
3308 Europa Dr #30 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1205	$5,500	$4.56	23d	1	0.77mi
1350 Misty Pines Cir Unit E-204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$7,500	$6.25	13d	1	0.80mi
1044 Woodshire Ln Unit B212 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$8,000	$6.40	23d	1	1.05mi
1860 Bald Eagle Dr Unit 403B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,000	$2.26	13d	1	1.17mi
1111 Wildwood Ln #1111 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2060	$10,000	$4.85	23d	1	1.23mi
1545 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	1.24mi
1629 Spoonbill Ln Unit 1629-A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	13d	1	1.25mi
522 Wildwood Ln #522 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$8,000	$4.83	23d	1	1.25mi
1554 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit C Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,900	$2.58	23d	1	1.27mi
5025 Maxwell Cir Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,500	$1.73	13d	1	1.29mi
1085 Forest Lakes Dr Unit 8202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$2,800	$2.58	13d	1	1.39mi
5050 Blauvelt Way Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,700	$1.83	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $320,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-02-26
    status Pending
12. 2026-02-04
    listed $380,000 Active
13. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $344,500
14. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus $99,935

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,033 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,033 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,033
• − Insurance: −$6,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,450
• − Management: −$5,450
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $19,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,617
• After-tax cash flow: $18,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+280.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $380,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $344,500 Public Records
• 2023-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $99,935 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,033 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.