303 S Russell St · Alvarado, TX 76009

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1970 5,706 sqft lot $121/sqft · 15% below area Est $241k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute, livable home with lot of potential in Alvarado ISD.

Key facts

• 5,706 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($92/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Alvarado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvarado J H (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 845 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 360 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,726
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -14.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 S Russell St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$121	91
203 W Purdom Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-8%)	0mo	$189,900	$122	71
610 S Spears St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-4%)	10mo	$207,500	$128	68
712 S Spears St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-8%)	3mo	$195,000	$125	62
322 S Watson St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-10%)	2mo	$248,000	$163	58
1009 Nighthawk Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,683 (-0%)	8mo	$339,990	$202	58
110 S Watson St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,543 (-9%)	1mo	$273,000	$177	57
103 Lorie St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,495 (-12%)	2mo	$229,900	$154	52
110 W Elm Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,519 (-10%)	12mo	$179,900	$118	51
111 Lorie St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-14%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	42
303 E Shelton St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-14%)	12mo	$239,900	$165	35
102 E Hopper St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-15%)	9mo	$250,000	$173	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,659
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,514
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76009

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,956/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $66	+0% $8	+5% $-50	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-67	+0% $8	+5% $83	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $60	base $8	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 E Purdom Ave Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	0.28mi
402 E College Ave Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,695	$1.08	26d	1	0.29mi
108 Sunset Cir Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,725	$1.53	26d	1	0.31mi
108 Sunset Cir Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,725	$1.53	45d	1	0.31mi
106 Austin St Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,900	$1.61	26d	1	0.34mi
1109 S Spears St Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,700	$1.56	0d	1	0.53mi
237 Rock Sparrow Ln Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,150	$1.29	8d	1	0.60mi
1089 Nighthawk Trl Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,056	$1.23	45d	1	0.81mi
1141 Nighthawk Trl Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,095	$1.37	0d	1	0.93mi
1020 Burnett Blvd Unit B Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,750	$1.32	20d	1	1.03mi
220 Cheyenne Trl Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,500	$1.51	23d	1	1.03mi
310 Shirley Dr Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,750	$1.64	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Option Contract
2. 2026-02-22
   price $205,000
3. 2026-02-21
   status Active
4. 2026-02-18
   historical Active Option Contract
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $195,000 Active
6. 2017-10-13
   soldstatus Sold 57-char remark

   Show marketing remark (57 chars)

   Cute, livable home with lot of potential in Alvarado ISD.

7. 2017-10-12
   status Pending 57-char remark

   Show marketing remark (57 chars)

   Cute, livable home with lot of potential in Alvarado ISD.

8. 2017-10-04
   historical Active Option Contract 57-char remark

   Show marketing remark (57 chars)

   Cute, livable home with lot of potential in Alvarado ISD.

9. 2017-09-13
   listed $39,900 Active 57-char remark

   Show marketing remark (57 chars)

   Cute, livable home with lot of potential in Alvarado ISD.

10. 1992-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,956 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,956
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvarado ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800011
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,485
• Composite: 34.02/100
• National rank: #5312
• State rank: #416 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvarado

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #5544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvarado, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 22,803
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,803
• Household income: $79,755
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 251.2624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+413.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2017-10-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-10-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-10-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-09-13 Listed $39,900 NTREIS
• 1992-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,956 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.