570 County Road 864 · Belmont, MS 38847

$165,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Equal Housing Opportunity. HUD OWNED. Fantastic opportunity! This Ranch style home in Tishomingo County has many advantages including the ability to live close to your kids school and shopping. Nice backyard perfect for entertaining and summer fun. All information herein is believed to be true, but not warranted:selling agent to verify all information. Property built in 1970.

Key facts

• Deck patio
• Great location
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• DECK PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE BARN
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Traditional style; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof
• Exterior features (lot): Approximately 1.5-acre lot (256 x 255)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Refrigerator; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#84 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Tishomingo County Sp Mun School District (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #49 of 130 in MS (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Tishomingo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Tishomingo County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $165k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,023 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $52,643
• Equity at exit: $119,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $159,988
• Equity at exit: $231,452

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38847

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $142,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-96	+0% $-153	+5% $-210	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-202	+0% $-153	+5% $-103	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-111	base $-153	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-02-17
    listed $165,000 Active
16. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus $75,000
17. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Equal Housing Opportunity. HUD OWNED. Fantastic opportunity! This Ranch style home in Tishomingo County has many advantages including the ability to live close to your kids school and shopping. Nice backyard perfect for entertaining and summer fun. All information herein is believed to be true, but not warranted:selling agent to verify all information. Property built in 1970.

18. 2016-09-19
    listed $78,000 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Equal Housing Opportunity. HUD OWNED. Fantastic opportunity! This Ranch style home in Tishomingo County has many advantages including the ability to live close to your kids school and shopping. Nice backyard perfect for entertaining and summer fun. All information herein is believed to be true, but not warranted:selling agent to verify all information. Property built in 1970.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tishomingo County Sp Mun School District
• NCES district ID: 2804260
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $33,342
• Composite: 31.24/100
• National rank: #6032
• State rank: #49 of 130 in MS

Livability — Belmont

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #10819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,528

Population outlook (Tishomingo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,535 people
• By 2030: 19,442 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 19,099 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 18,422 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 16,784 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 13,791 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tishomingo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.9) · D 10.2% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.0pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -78.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.9 2020: R+75.2 2016: R+73.7 2012: R+56.6 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.46%
• Current HPI: 159.4479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+111.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $165,000 NEMSBD
• 2016-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-14 Sold (MLS) — NEMSBD
• 2016-09-19 Listed $78,000 NEMSBD

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.