3851 Cherokee Blvd · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 2003 5,170 sqft lot $165/sqft · 21% below area Est $258k · 21% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story home offering an open and functional floor plan with window from the living area into the dine-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The primary retreat features a full bathroom with an extended counter for vanity space and relaxing garden tub. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space along with a dedicated pantry all while being spacious enough to accommodate casual dining. Perfect for those looking to personalize and make it their own!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dine-in kitchen
• Primary retreat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DINE-IN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY RETREAT
• EXTENDED COUNTER
• GARDEN TUB
• DEDICATED PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 44% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 810 students, 63% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 31% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,959 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,927
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -20.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3972 Trinity Trl	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,261 (+2%)	5mo	$181,900	$144	88
3849 Swift Fox Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	1mo	$214,999	$170	77
3833 Swift Fox Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	6mo	$219,007	$173	72
3765 Swift Fox Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	3mo	$194,990	$154	71
3817 Swift Fox Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	6mo	$215,999	$171	71
3805 Swift Fox Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	8mo	$214,999	$170	69
730 Tulsa Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+2%)	7mo	$199,900	$158	62
3824 Swift Fox Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+13%)	4mo	$215,000	$153	56
3841 Swift Fox Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+13%)	5mo	$226,999	$162	55
3769 Swift Fox Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+13%)	4mo	$204,990	$146	52
3636 Tilden	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,379 (+11%)	2mo	$229,500	$166	49
3757 Swift Fox Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+13%)	8mo	$235,999	$168	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-50,982
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-79,127
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1136
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,443/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,851

Max offer price $168,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-149	+0% $-207	+5% $-265	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-269	+0% $-207	+5% $-144	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-154	base $-207	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	25d	1	0.12mi
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	0d	1	0.12mi
3738 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	16d	1	0.39mi
742 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	4d	1	0.42mi
754 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	4d	1	0.43mi
740 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	45d	1	0.54mi
4171 River Legacy Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,570	$1.20	25d	1	0.55mi
3707 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,550	$1.14	6d	1	0.56mi
751 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	25d	1	0.58mi
722 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$3,200	$2.51	45d	1	0.59mi
4752 FM 482 New Braunfels, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0	775	$900	$1.16	6d	3	0.95mi
272 Schmucks Rd New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	908	$995	$1.10	25d	1	1.37mi
3143 Douglas Fir Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,325	$0.97	16d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $205,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering an open and functional floor plan with window from the living area into the dine-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The primary retreat features a full bathroom with an extended counter for vanity space and relaxing garden tub. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space along with a dedicated pantry all while being spacious enough to accommodate casual dining. Perfect for those looking to personalize and make it their own!

16. 2025-11-19
    price $214,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering an open and functional floor plan with window from the living area into the dine-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The primary retreat features a full bathroom with an extended counter for vanity space and relaxing garden tub. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space along with a dedicated pantry all while being spacious enough to accommodate casual dining. Perfect for those looking to personalize and make it their own!

17. 2025-10-16
    listed $220,000 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering an open and functional floor plan with window from the living area into the dine-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The primary retreat features a full bathroom with an extended counter for vanity space and relaxing garden tub. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space along with a dedicated pantry all while being spacious enough to accommodate casual dining. Perfect for those looking to personalize and make it their own!

18. 2007-09-25
    soldstatus
19. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Clean and neat 2bd home in small subdivision. Sit on the porch in the evening and wave to the neighbors! Large living room has space for formal dining if you wish, or that big-screen TV you've always wanted! Big eat-in kitchen, ceiling fans in kitchen, both bdrms, and living rm. Privacy fenced yard, nicely landscaped in front. Master bath with marble top dressing table/sink, tile surround in bath.

20. 2007-08-16
    listed $112,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Clean and neat 2bd home in small subdivision. Sit on the porch in the evening and wave to the neighbors! Large living room has space for formal dining if you wish, or that big-screen TV you've always wanted! Big eat-in kitchen, ceiling fans in kitchen, both bdrms, and living rm. Privacy fenced yard, nicely landscaped in front. Master bath with marble top dressing table/sink, tile surround in bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,443 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,443
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$6,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+83.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $205,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $214,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2007-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-21 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2007-08-16 Listed $112,000 LERA

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,443 · -15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.