16200 Hyland Ave · Lakeville, MN 55044

$439,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1988 0.27 ac lot $164/sqft · 11% below area Est $501k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Finished basement
• Covered patio

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WALKOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 718 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $222k; list at $440k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $298,636 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $500,538
• List price: $439,900
• Delta: -12.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16583 Hearthside Way	0.56mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,004 (+12%)	1mo	$550,000	$183	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-111,002
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-144,480
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 718
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,132/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,799

Max offer price $326,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-393	-5% $-517	+0% $-642	+5% $-766	+10% $-891
Rent	-10% $-878	-5% $-760	+0% $-642	+5% $-524	+10% $-406
Rate	-1.0pp $-420	-0.5pp $-530	base $-642	+0.5pp $-756	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $439,900 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

3. 2026-04-29
   status Active 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

4. 2026-04-23
   historical Contingent - Inspection 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

5. 2026-03-24
   price $449,900 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

6. 2026-03-19
   price $464,900 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

7. 2026-03-19
   price $473,900 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

8. 2026-03-11
   listed $474,900 Active 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Come home to this 5 bedroom 4 bathroom 2 story in desirable neighbor-hood & school district. 2800 square feet. Nice layout with generous sized bedrooms. Bright kitchen w/new stainless appliances. Finished basement with walkout. Beautiful views with Nice backyard and covered patio. Separate storage shed.

9. 2025-10-14
   historical
10. 2025-08-23
    price $479,900
11. 2025-08-07
    price $489,900
12. 2025-07-29
    price $499,900
13. 2025-07-24
    listed $514,900 Active
14. 2025-07-19
    historical
15. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $222,500
16. 2001-03-01
    soldstatus $222,500
17. 2001-01-17
    historical
18. 2001-01-06
    listed $224,900
19. 1999-07-23
    soldstatus $192,000
20. 1999-06-14
    historical
21. 1999-05-19
    listed $199,900
22. 1993-07-26
    soldstatus $147,000
23. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus $147,000
24. 1993-05-20
    listed $147,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,132 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,132 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$6,132
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,867
• − Management: −$2,867
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$15,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,760
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+197.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $439,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $449,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $464,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $473,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $474,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $479,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $489,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $499,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed $514,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-29 Sold (MLS) $222,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 2001-01-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-06 Listed $224,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $192,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-05-19 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (MLS) $147,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-20 Listed $147,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,132 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.