14790 Bowie Ln · Willis, TX 77378

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2020 5,601 sqft lot $187/sqft · 6% below area Est $178k · 6% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream home in Frontier Lakes, where you’ll enjoy an exceptional lifestyle featuring a community pool, three beautiful lakes perfect for fishing and kayaking, and a scenic lakeside park. Located in the highly regarded Willis ISD, this home offers access to top-tier schools for your family. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features elegant finishes, including granite countertops, a combination of carpet and tile flooring throughout, and relatively new appliances. With a low tax rate and convenient access to I-45, you’re just minutes from growing amenities such as shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a vibrant and welcoming community. schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Lakeside park
• Low tax rate

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• THREE BEAUTIFUL LAKES
• LAKESIDE PARK
• ACCESS TO TOP-TIER SCHOOLS
• LOW TAX RATE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $157,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,452
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: -5.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15229 Travis Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	900 (0%)	8mo	$150,000	$167	69
14881 Travis Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	958 (+6%)	20mo	$173,900	$182	62
14756 Crockett Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	975 (+8%)	22mo	$172,400	$177	57
3940 Frontier Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,034 (+15%)	2mo	$175,000	$169	57
4089 Ben Milam	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	896 (-0%)	21mo	$167,800	$187	56
15149 Austin Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	800 (-11%)	3mo	$159,000	$199	51
5540 N Buffalo Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	13mo	$204,000	$204	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,935
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,910
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $168,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $168,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $168,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $168,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   price $1,350
10. 2026-04-14
    price $170,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Discover your dream home in Frontier Lakes, where you’ll enjoy an exceptional lifestyle featuring a community pool, three beautiful lakes perfect for fishing and kayaking, and a scenic lakeside park. Located in the highly regarded Willis ISD, this home offers access to top-tier schools for your family. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features elegant finishes, including granite countertops, a combination of carpet and tile flooring throughout, and relatively new appliances. With a low tax rate and convenient access to I-45, you’re just minutes from growing amenities such as shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a vibrant and welcoming community. schedule your showing today.

11. 2026-04-10
    price $1,550
12. 2026-04-09
    price $205,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Discover your dream home in Frontier Lakes, where you’ll enjoy an exceptional lifestyle featuring a community pool, three beautiful lakes perfect for fishing and kayaking, and a scenic lakeside park. Located in the highly regarded Willis ISD, this home offers access to top-tier schools for your family. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features elegant finishes, including granite countertops, a combination of carpet and tile flooring throughout, and relatively new appliances. With a low tax rate and convenient access to I-45, you’re just minutes from growing amenities such as shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a vibrant and welcoming community. schedule your showing today.

13. 2026-03-28
    price $1,595
14. 2026-03-27
    price $215,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Discover your dream home in Frontier Lakes, where you’ll enjoy an exceptional lifestyle featuring a community pool, three beautiful lakes perfect for fishing and kayaking, and a scenic lakeside park. Located in the highly regarded Willis ISD, this home offers access to top-tier schools for your family. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features elegant finishes, including granite countertops, a combination of carpet and tile flooring throughout, and relatively new appliances. With a low tax rate and convenient access to I-45, you’re just minutes from growing amenities such as shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a vibrant and welcoming community. schedule your showing today.

15. 2026-03-21
    listed $1,600
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $220,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Discover your dream home in Frontier Lakes, where you’ll enjoy an exceptional lifestyle featuring a community pool, three beautiful lakes perfect for fishing and kayaking, and a scenic lakeside park. Located in the highly regarded Willis ISD, this home offers access to top-tier schools for your family. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features elegant finishes, including granite countertops, a combination of carpet and tile flooring throughout, and relatively new appliances. With a low tax rate and convenient access to I-45, you’re just minutes from growing amenities such as shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a vibrant and welcoming community. schedule your showing today.

17. 2020-02-27
    soldstatus
18. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2020-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.