640 Aldredge Cir · Hudson, TX 75969

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1974 1.71 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special – Mobile Home on 1.5+ Acres with Expansion Potential! This 1.5+ acre property offers endless possibilities! The existing mobile home needs TLC, making it a perfect fixer-upper project for those ready to add value. With plenty of open space, there's room to place additional mobile homes or create your own private retreat. Located outside city limits, you'll enjoy the flexibility of fewer restrictions and the peace of a country setting while still being within easy reach of town amenities. Whether you're an investor seeking income potential or a buyer ready to build your vision, this property is full of opportunity. The square footage is an estimate by the owner.

Key facts

• Open space
• Expansion potential
• Outside city limits

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• EXPANSION POTENTIAL
• FIXER-UPPER PROJECT
• OPEN SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot in Benge's Hwy 69 subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Window unit(s); Electric heating
• Interior features: Carpet, tile, vinyl, and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $532 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-298 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,286
• Equity at exit: $33,362

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $64,370
• Equity at exit: $38,938

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75969

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,927/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $429	+0% $395	+5% $361	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $333	+0% $395	+5% $457	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $426	base $395	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2025-08-18
    listed $120,000 Active 692-char remark
19. 2024-11-09
    historical
20. 2024-08-19
    price $163,000
21. 2024-05-08
    listed $173,000 Active
22. 2024-04-12
    price $173,000
23. 2024-01-05
    price $177,500
24. 2023-11-21
    status Active
25. 2023-11-08
    historical
26. 2023-10-29
    listed $182,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,927
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $4,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813500
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,994
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4458
• State rank: #294 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,606

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 235.2344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-34.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Listed $120,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-11-09 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $163,000 GTAR
• 2024-05-08 Listed $173,000 GTAR
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $173,000 GTAR
• 2024-01-05 Price Changed $177,500 GTAR
• 2023-11-21 Relisted — GTAR
• 2023-11-08 Delisted — GTAR
• 2023-10-29 Listed $182,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,927 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.