315 W Buford St · Lancaster, KY 40444

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1948 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Country Cottage on 0.4 Acres. Endless Potential! Discover a country oasis within city limits! This quaint 4-bedroom (possibly), 1-bath cottage sits on a 0.4-acre lot, offering plenty of space to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquil sounds of a babbling brook running through the property, perfect for a peaceful picnic. With room for chickens, ducks, or even a pony, this is an ideal setting for those craving a touch of country charm. This home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, no repairs will be made. Due to some issues, it will probably not pass regular VA/FHA/USDA inspections; (ask about special financing) needs renovation loan, cash or conventional financing only. (CAUTION: Animals in cages will bite).

Key facts

• Room for ducks
• Room for a pony
• Babbling brook

Tags

• 0.4 ACRES
• BABBLING BROOK
• ROOM FOR CHICKENS
• ROOM FOR DUCKS
• ROOM FOR A PONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#314 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Garrard County (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 165 in KY (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.50%
• DSCR: 5.29
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $63,505
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.56×
• Total profit: $147,561
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40444

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $49,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   price $49,900 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   Charming Country Cottage on 0.4 Acres. Endless Potential! Discover a country oasis within city limits! This quaint 4-bedroom (possibly), 1-bath cottage sits on a 0.4-acre lot, offering plenty of space to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquil sounds of a babbling brook running through the property, perfect for a peaceful picnic. With room for chickens, ducks, or even a pony, this is an ideal setting for those craving a touch of country charm. This home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, no repairs will be made. Due to some issues, it will probably not pass regular VA/FHA/USDA inspections; (ask about special financing) needs renovation loan, cash or conventional financing only. (CAUTION: Animals in cages will bite).

7. 2026-04-08
   listed $69,500 Active 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   Charming Country Cottage on 0.4 Acres. Endless Potential! Discover a country oasis within city limits! This quaint 4-bedroom (possibly), 1-bath cottage sits on a 0.4-acre lot, offering plenty of space to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquil sounds of a babbling brook running through the property, perfect for a peaceful picnic. With room for chickens, ducks, or even a pony, this is an ideal setting for those craving a touch of country charm. This home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, no repairs will be made. Due to some issues, it will probably not pass regular VA/FHA/USDA inspections; (ask about special financing) needs renovation loan, cash or conventional financing only. (CAUTION: Animals in cages will bite).

8. 2026-01-05
   historical
9. 2025-10-06
   price $63,900
10. 2025-09-15
    price $69,900
11. 2025-09-08
    price $79,000
12. 2025-08-27
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2021-10-20
    status Pending
14. 2021-10-19
    historical
15. 2021-09-19
    price $69,900
16. 2021-09-15
    price $79,900
17. 2021-09-09
    listed $89,900 Active
18. 2011-10-08
    historical
19. 2010-10-08
    listed $46,000
20. 2010-02-20
    historical
21. 2009-02-20
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,238
• After-tax cash flow: $10,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrard County
• NCES district ID: 2102160
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $43,411
• Composite: 29.67/100
• National rank: #6462
• State rank: #63 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #15040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, KY
• Population (ZIP): 14,207

Population outlook (Garrard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,852 people
• By 2030: 18,018 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 18,076 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 17,592 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 16,128 · -9.7%
• By 2100: 13,489 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garrard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.3% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.08%
• Current HPI: 297.6233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $49,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $69,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $63,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $69,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $85,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-10-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2021-10-19 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2021-09-19 Price Changed $69,900 ImagineMLS
• 2021-09-15 Price Changed $79,900 ImagineMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2011-10-08 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-10-08 Listed $46,000 ImagineMLS
• 2010-02-20 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listed $20,000 ImagineMLS