613 E 4th St · Erie, KS 66733

$54,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $55k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• New siding
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#144 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Erie-Galesburg (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #116 of 169 in KS (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Neosho County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Neosho County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $55k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.08%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 S Butler St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	816 (+11%)	20mo	$61,000	$75	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $28,918
• Equity at exit: $30,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $73,352
• Equity at exit: $53,337

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66733

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $54,900 Active
17. 2009-08-01
    soldstatus $14,000
18. 2003-05-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$774
• − Management: −$774
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $2,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$565
• After-tax cash flow: $2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie-Galesburg
• NCES district ID: 2006000
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,185
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7708
• State rank: #116 of 169 in KS

Livability — Erie

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #7005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,966

Population outlook (Neosho County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,851 people
• By 2030: 15,452 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 14,642 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 13,836 · -12.7%
• By 2075: 11,782 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 9,024 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Neosho

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.0% · R 73.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+46.3 2016: R+46.8 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 186.4277
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+174.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $54,900 FSBO.com
• 2009-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records