18703 Artesian Way · Atascocita, TX 77346

$188,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1977 9,761 sqft lot $81/sqft · 26% below area Est $256k · 26% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 1-story home in Belleau Wood East offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a flexible layout filled with natural light. Features include a generous living area, bonus/rec room, and all bedrooms on one level. Enjoy a large lot with mature trees, fenced backyard, detached 2-car garage, and additional outbuilding—ideal for storage or hobbies. Conveniently located near FM 1960 and US-59 with easy access to Deerbrook Mall, Lake Houston, Jesse H. Jones Park & Nature Center, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Great opportunity to make it your own.

Key facts

• Generous living area
• Flexible layout
• Large lot

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING AREA
• BONUS REC ROOM
• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $189k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,942 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,662
• List price: $188,600
• Delta: -26.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5018 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,223 (-5%)	1mo	$239,900	$108	79
5019 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,506 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$98	76
19006 Lakeshire St	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (-5%)	4mo	$315,000	$143	66
19115 Shay Ln	0.44mi	3/3.0	2,254 (-3%)	8mo	$219,900	$98	63
18919 Artesian Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,113 (-9%)	13mo	$325,000	$154	62
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,319 (-1%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	61
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,205 (-5%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	56
18202 Tree Moss Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,338 (+0%)	7mo	$260,000	$111	54
4907 Winding View Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,091 (-10%)	13mo	$245,000	$117	54
19214 Artesian Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,639 (+13%)	12mo	$359,900	$136	42
4834 Winding Timbers Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,194 (-6%)	13mo	$289,000	$132	42
18315 Atascocita Meadows Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,040 (-12%)	13mo	$233,000	$114	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,997
• Equity at exit: $45,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,240
• Equity at exit: $48,596

Cash invested: $52,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$989
• Tax from tax record: −$578 /mo · $6,941/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,184

Max offer price $188,600

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,150
• Closing costs: $5,658
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	0.66mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,851	$0.87	5d	1	0.78mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	24d	1	0.84mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	3d	1	0.85mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	0.89mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	11d	1	0.91mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	43d	1	1.12mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	43d	1	1.17mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	43d	1	1.38mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 1-story home in Belleau Wood East offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a flexible layout filled with natural light. Features include a generous living area, bonus/rec room, and all bedrooms on one level. Enjoy a large lot with mature trees, fenced backyard, detached 2-car garage, and additional outbuilding—ideal for storage or hobbies. Conveniently located near FM 1960 and US-59 with easy access to Deerbrook Mall, Lake Houston, Jesse H. Jones Park & Nature Center, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Great opportunity to make it your own.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $188,600 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 1-story home in Belleau Wood East offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a flexible layout filled with natural light. Features include a generous living area, bonus/rec room, and all bedrooms on one level. Enjoy a large lot with mature trees, fenced backyard, detached 2-car garage, and additional outbuilding—ideal for storage or hobbies. Conveniently located near FM 1960 and US-59 with easy access to Deerbrook Mall, Lake Houston, Jesse H. Jones Park & Nature Center, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Great opportunity to make it your own.

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $205,000 Active 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 1-story home in Belleau Wood East offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a flexible layout filled with natural light. Features include a generous living area, bonus/rec room, and all bedrooms on one level. Enjoy a large lot with mature trees, fenced backyard, detached 2-car garage, and additional outbuilding—ideal for storage or hobbies. Conveniently located near FM 1960 and US-59 with easy access to Deerbrook Mall, Lake Houston, Jesse H. Jones Park & Nature Center, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Great opportunity to make it your own.

4. 2023-08-02
   soldstatus
5. 2023-07-26
   soldstatus Sold 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Charming single-story home in Humble! All sides brick with an open floorplan that creates a spacious and welcoming atmosphere. Upon entry, you have the formal dining and living room, plus a huge den that features a brick fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings. The updated kitchen comes complete with granite countertops, recent appliances, double ovens, ample cabinet space, study nook, and breakfast area for casual dining. The primary suite includes 2 closets and 2 separate vanities in the bath. Outside enjoy your enclosed sunroom that can be used as a home office, gym, or simply a relaxing retreat. There is a delightful casita on the property with its own front porch, electricity, window a/c unit, and recent carpeting, adding 228 sqft. The in-house utility room is huge and could double as a craft room. Oversized 2-car detached garage with built-in cabinets and workshop area all on a large private lot with no back neighbors. Low HOA and tax rate!

6. 2023-07-10
   status Pending 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Charming single-story home in Humble! All sides brick with an open floorplan that creates a spacious and welcoming atmosphere. Upon entry, you have the formal dining and living room, plus a huge den that features a brick fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings. The updated kitchen comes complete with granite countertops, recent appliances, double ovens, ample cabinet space, study nook, and breakfast area for casual dining. The primary suite includes 2 closets and 2 separate vanities in the bath. Outside enjoy your enclosed sunroom that can be used as a home office, gym, or simply a relaxing retreat. There is a delightful casita on the property with its own front porch, electricity, window a/c unit, and recent carpeting, adding 228 sqft. The in-house utility room is huge and could double as a craft room. Oversized 2-car detached garage with built-in cabinets and workshop area all on a large private lot with no back neighbors. Low HOA and tax rate!

7. 2023-07-03
   status Option Pending 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Charming single-story home in Humble! All sides brick with an open floorplan that creates a spacious and welcoming atmosphere. Upon entry, you have the formal dining and living room, plus a huge den that features a brick fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings. The updated kitchen comes complete with granite countertops, recent appliances, double ovens, ample cabinet space, study nook, and breakfast area for casual dining. The primary suite includes 2 closets and 2 separate vanities in the bath. Outside enjoy your enclosed sunroom that can be used as a home office, gym, or simply a relaxing retreat. There is a delightful casita on the property with its own front porch, electricity, window a/c unit, and recent carpeting, adding 228 sqft. The in-house utility room is huge and could double as a craft room. Oversized 2-car detached garage with built-in cabinets and workshop area all on a large private lot with no back neighbors. Low HOA and tax rate!

8. 2023-06-12
   listed $260,000 Active 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Charming single-story home in Humble! All sides brick with an open floorplan that creates a spacious and welcoming atmosphere. Upon entry, you have the formal dining and living room, plus a huge den that features a brick fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings. The updated kitchen comes complete with granite countertops, recent appliances, double ovens, ample cabinet space, study nook, and breakfast area for casual dining. The primary suite includes 2 closets and 2 separate vanities in the bath. Outside enjoy your enclosed sunroom that can be used as a home office, gym, or simply a relaxing retreat. There is a delightful casita on the property with its own front porch, electricity, window a/c unit, and recent carpeting, adding 228 sqft. The in-house utility room is huge and could double as a craft room. Oversized 2-car detached garage with built-in cabinets and workshop area all on a large private lot with no back neighbors. Low HOA and tax rate!

9. 2023-06-05
   historical $260,000 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Charming single-story home in Humble! All sides brick with an open floorplan that creates a spacious and welcoming atmosphere. Upon entry, you have the formal dining and living room, plus a huge den that features a brick fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings. The updated kitchen comes complete with granite countertops, recent appliances, double ovens, ample cabinet space, study nook, and breakfast area for casual dining. The primary suite includes 2 closets and 2 separate vanities in the bath. Outside enjoy your enclosed sunroom that can be used as a home office, gym, or simply a relaxing retreat. There is a delightful casita on the property with its own front porch, electricity, window a/c unit, and recent carpeting, adding 228 sqft. The in-house utility room is huge and could double as a craft room. Oversized 2-car detached garage with built-in cabinets and workshop area all on a large private lot with no back neighbors. Low HOA and tax rate!

10. 2014-09-23
    soldstatus Sold
11. 2014-08-18
    status Pending
12. 2014-07-30
    price $129,900
13. 2014-06-18
    status Active
14. 2014-05-21
    status Pending
15. 2014-05-01
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 2013-11-07
    soldstatus
17. 2013-08-15
    historical
18. 2013-07-24
    listed $100,000 Active
19. 2005-11-28
    historical
20. 2005-06-10
    listed $134,900
21. 2005-01-11
    historical
22. 2004-05-28
    listed $129,900
23. 1996-05-31
    soldstatus
24. 1988-12-01
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,565
• − Property taxes: −$6,941
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,487
• Taxable loss: −$169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+190.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $188,600 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-12 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-05 Coming Soon $260,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-07-30 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2014-06-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2013-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-24 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2005-11-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-06-10 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2005-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-05-28 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 1996-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,941 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.