14704 Eston Pl · Horizon City, TX 79928

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1994 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable opportunity in a cul de sac community! This cozy home features an open-concept living area, spacious kitchen, comfortable bedrooms, and plenty of natural light throughout. The property includes a fully fenced yard with a convenient remote-control electric gate/fence system, offering added privacy, security, and easy access. Perfect for pets, outdoor gatherings, or simply enjoying peace of mind. Ideal for first-time buyers, retirees, or investors seeking a property in a calm environment.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees included

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home; Shingle roof
• Construction: Frame construction; Aluminum siding; Mobile home dimensions approximately 17' x 76'
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Gazebo; Back yard access; Screened patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Single-pane windows; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $125k implies a 491% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.88%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,857
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $53,529
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $557	+0% $522	+5% $486	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $453	+0% $522	+5% $590	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $553	base $522	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14565 Hendrik Dr Unit B El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$900	$0.93	3d	1	0.49mi
14624 Achim Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,500	$1.05	11d	1	0.50mi
14608 Adonis Blue Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	11d	1	0.54mi
656 Orchid Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,350	$1.24	24d	1	0.72mi
14361 Star Cactus Ave Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,600	$1.37	11d	1	0.86mi
14269 Escalera Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	3d	1	0.90mi
14333 Paraiso Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,000	$1.63	3d	1	0.92mi
456 Von Bargen Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.05mi
14496 Cabana Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,475	$1.32	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 502-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $125,000 Active 502-char remark
3. 1996-05-09
   soldstatus $21,147

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$648/yr (+$54/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $5,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+491.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $125,000 GEPARMLS
• 1996-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $21,147 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.