5008 Gavins St · Fayetteville, NC 28303

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-duplex in poor condition-sold " as is" -cash only-make all inspections prior to writing offers-no due dil period

Key facts

• Large lot
• Two units
• Convenient to dining

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• TWO UNITS
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO DINING
• CONVENIENT TO ENTERTAINMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-747/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R Max Abbott Middle (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 759 students, 99% FRL); Terry Sanford High (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #306 of 535 statewide, top 57%, 1,224 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,647 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,812
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-30,749
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28303

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,211/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $149,010

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-17	+0% $-62	+5% $-107	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-118	+0% $-62	+5% $-7	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-22	base $-62	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1276 N Forest Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	24d	1	0.29mi
1160 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.34mi
1198 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.35mi
1199 Wrenwood Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,345	$1.10	24d	1	0.37mi
1937 Sardonyx Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	24d	1	0.42mi
1909 Tryon Dr #7 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.65mi
1981 Wheeling St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	24d	1	0.66mi
2056 Wheeling St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,595	$1.14	24d	1	0.69mi
1882 Tryon Dr #4 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,100	$1.03	14d	1	0.73mi
1849 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1061	$998	$0.94	24d	2	0.76mi
1861 Tryon Dr Unit 3 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$995	$0.95	24d	1	0.77mi
710 Villagio Pl Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	984	$1,686	$1.71	14d	9	0.80mi
1130 Annondale Way Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1180	$1,942	$1.65	14d	6	0.83mi
1808 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1066	$995	$0.93	24d	1	0.85mi
1712 Scampton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1814	$2,000	$1.10	24d	1	0.92mi
1712 Scampton Dr Unit NA Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	0.92mi
3374 Galleria Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	24d	1	0.94mi
1000 Antietam Crk Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,567	$1.48	24d	14	1.00mi
1907 Eichelberger Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,650	$1.13	24d	1	1.07mi
1025 Hirschfeld Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$1,730	$1.56	14d	17	1.07mi
3050 Plantation Garden Blvd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$1,512	$1.30	14d	58	1.15mi
1615 Morehead Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	1.24mi
5410 Laramie Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,600	$1.11	14d	1	1.27mi
5745 Holland St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	1.29mi
1350 Shaw Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,399	$1.04	14d	1	1.30mi
1404 Hibiscus Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,350	$0.95	22d	1	1.32mi
5414 Plateau Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	24d	1	1.39mi
853 Shannon Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1820	$1,650	$0.91	24d	1	1.40mi
513 Lumberly Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,295	$1.15	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   soldstatus $132,000
2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-25
   listed $160,000 Active
4. 2025-04-25
   listed $190,000 Active
5. 2018-02-21
   soldstatus $17,000
6. 2018-02-20
   soldstatus $17,000 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   -duplex in poor condition-sold " as is" -cash only-make all inspections prior to writing offers-no due dil period

7. 2018-01-27
   listed $17,500 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   -duplex in poor condition-sold " as is" -cash only-make all inspections prior to writing offers-no due dil period

8. 1984-06-01
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,211 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,211 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,211
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$828
• After-tax cash flow: $82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,965
• Household income: $58,223
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1370.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 37% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.14%
• Current HPI: 226.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+277.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-17 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $160,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $190,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-20 Sold (MLS) $17,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-01-27 Listed $17,500 LPRMLS
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,211 · +101.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.