554 Dark Oak St SW · Ocean Isle Beach, NC 28470

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1988 0.46 ac lot Est $229k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the established Lakewood Estates community, this updated double-wide manufactured home sits on a permanent foundation on Lot 15, a nearly half-acre lot, in a peaceful setting at the end of the road. The location is just minutes from Ocean Isle Beach, Shallotte, shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. The home features a split floor plan with two bedrooms, a bonus room, vaulted ceilings in the living room and bonus room, an eat-in breakfast nook, and an additional dining area. Tax records indicate the home as a 2-bedroom, and the septic permit is approved for a 2-bedroom residence; however, the current layout includes a third room that may serve well as a flex room, home offi

Key facts

• Fishing pond
• No hoa restrictions
• Flex room

Tags

• LAKEWOOD ESTATES COMMUNITY
• NEARLY HALF-ACRE LOT
• FISHING POND
• FLEX ROOM
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shed(s); Has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings and high ceilings; Ceiling fans; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($446/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.4% in Ocean Isle Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#454 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary (math 83% / reading 76%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 571 students, 100% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brunswick County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 384 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $200k implies a 2567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,307 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,528
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5328 Kingfisher Dr SW	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,058 (-4%)	13mo	$230,000	$217	69
420 Red Oak Dr SW	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+10%)	11mo	$215,000	$177	56
267 Laughing Gull Ct SW	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+9%)	7mo	$212,000	$177	46
266 Laughing Gull Ct SW	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,016 (-8%)	12mo	$210,000	$207	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,140
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,601
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28470

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $94	+0% $37	+5% $-19	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-24	+0% $37	+5% $98	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $88	base $37	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5855 Sparkling Water Way Ocean Isle Beach, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,762	$1.64	15d	149	0.77mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    listed $200,000 Active
19. 2026-03-29
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-03-29
    historical
21. 2026-03-23
    price $229,000
22. 2026-03-19
    price $255,000
23. 2026-03-02
    price $269,900
24. 2026-02-11
    listed $275,000 Active
25. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,044/yr (+$87/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ocean Isle Beach

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #16695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 11,219
• Household income: $65,030
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.91%
• Current HPI: 146.2303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+2566.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $200,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-29 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $229,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $255,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $269,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.