3801 40th Street Ct W · Bradenton, FL 34205

$148,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Condo public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1978 $439/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE! This beautifully maintained 55+ villa style community offers a heated swimming pool for year round enjoyment. Located in the desirable Cortez Villas. 2 designated parking spaces are conveniently located in front of condo. This furnished 2/1 end unit boasts extra windows for added natural light. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet with extra shelving. Front room offers a built-in unit to be used as a dining room/office/library. The Kitchen has newer stainless steel appliances. Bathroom has updated tub and shower. A walk-in pantry is located in the kitchen offering extra storage, a newer hot water heater(2025) and HVAC (2021). The Florida Room windows allow year round enjoyment

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Built-in unit
• Heated swimming pool

Tags

• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT-IN UNIT
• UPDATED TUB AND SHOWER
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PULL DOWN ATTIC LADDER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is furnished; Floor number: 1; Living area reported as 1,015 sq ft (building area total 1,115 sq ft)
• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $5,268; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $360; Additional association fee of $79 monthly (total monthly fees shown $439); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, cable TV; Association fee required; Senior community; Pets allowed (max ~15 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available / connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One story; Faces west; Entry level: 1st floor
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built/identified as building number 3801
• Exterior features: Heated pool; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Humidity control
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hook-up; Dryer hook-up; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,015/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1736% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $148k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,037
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,738
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$439
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4107 41st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$3,700	$2.61	23d	1	0.27mi
4460 Fairways Blvd #606 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,000	$1.59	16d	1	0.31mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	10d	9	0.37mi
4570 Pinebrook Cir #304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$3,100	$2.47	23d	1	0.41mi
3806 Southern Pkwy W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,176	$1.68	11d	1	0.47mi
4240 Ironwood Cir #404 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.48	23d	1	0.49mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 404F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	11d	1	0.52mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 406F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,675	$1.66	16d	1	0.52mi
3401 50th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,699	$1.90	23d	1	0.55mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	3d	1	0.55mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 501A Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	840	$2,595	$3.09	23d	1	0.57mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	21d	1	0.58mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	2d	1	0.58mi
108 Pinehurst Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,500	$1.78	23d	1	0.58mi
3603 Oxford Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	23d	1	0.59mi
4110 Ironwood Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.59mi
4210 Ironwood Cir Unit 103J Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	23d	1	0.62mi
3909 45th Ter W #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,800	$1.26	16d	1	0.63mi
4457 45th Ave W #211 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	16d	1	0.64mi
3715 45th Ter W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,695	$1.19	23d	1	0.71mi
3825 45th Ter W #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,550	$1.08	23d	1	0.71mi
4655 46th Street Ct W #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$600	$0.53	3d	1	0.74mi
3603 45th Ter W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	3d	1	0.76mi
4550 47th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,800	$1.94	1d	27	0.80mi
283 Sherwood Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.81mi
303 Springdale Dr #303 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,999	$1.53	3d	1	0.84mi
4112 Cape Vista Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,495	$2.41	23d	1	0.86mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	23d	1	0.87mi
346 Springdale Dr Unit 346 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	23d	1	0.89mi
4801 47th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,810	$1.78	2d	32	0.89mi
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	3d	13	1.04mi
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	16d	15	1.04mi
452 Palm Tree Dr Unit 452 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,595	$1.22	3d	1	1.04mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	2d	1	1.04mi
655 Woodlawn Dr Unit 655 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	23d	1	1.10mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	23d	1	1.10mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	23d	1	1.12mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	21d	1	1.12mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	23d	1	1.12mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,340	$1.17	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $439 · $5,268/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $148,000 Pending 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $148,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $148,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $148,000
15. 2026-04-18
    price $158,000
16. 2026-03-18
    price $163,000
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $168,000 Active
18. 2004-04-21
    soldstatus $89,900
19. 1998-02-03
    soldstatus $48,500
20. 1993-05-06
    soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 166.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$5,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $1,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$300
• After-tax cash flow: $3,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+218.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $163,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1998-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1993-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.