20100 N 78th Pl #3117 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$405,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2001 $363/sqft · at area comps Est $416k · at est. $507/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the Luxury Life at The Edge in prestigious Grayhawk! 8k in concessions being offered! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom condo is located in the highly desirable gated community of The Edge in North Scottsdale. Enjoy fresh upgrades including a newer A/C system, newer stainless steel appliances, brand-new carpeting and tile flooring, along with fresh, two-tone paint. The smart split floor plan offers excellent privacy with a spacious primary suite featuring a soak-in tub and dual closets, while the second bedroom sits on the opposite side with a versatile office nook. Prime location close to the fitness center and pool. Very impressive community with four resort-style pools, spas, workout centers, social activities... Great, friendly community!!

Key facts

• Soak-in tub
• Brand-new carpeting
• Newer a/c system

Tags

• NEWER A/C SYSTEM
• BRAND-NEW CARPETING
• TILE FLOORING
• SOAK-IN TUB
• DUAL CLOSETS
• VERSATILE OFFICE NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,627 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,551
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -2.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $63,906
• Equity at exit: $245,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $237,189
• Equity at exit: $437,215

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,533/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$507
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $270,627

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	4d	17	0.11mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1202	$3,925	$3.26	44d	5	0.11mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	20d	15	0.11mi
20121 N 76th St #2003 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,795	$2.11	3d	1	0.13mi
19777 N 76th St Unit 1546393P Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,109	$2.35	8d	1	0.15mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,995	$1.51	3d	16	0.22mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	10d	19	0.22mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1293	$3,250	$2.51	44d	9	0.22mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$3,500	$2.14	44d	7	0.28mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	4d	14	0.28mi
7340 E Legacy Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,940	$1.86	1d	22	0.55mi
7355 E Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,048	$1.96	5d	41	0.59mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1814	$3,800	$2.09	44d	4	0.92mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Unit 1545664P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1313	$2,159	$1.64	14d	1	0.97mi
7220 E Mayo Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1418	$7,633	$5.38	2d	84	1.05mi
18525 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,965	$2.62	12d	1	1.16mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,300	$1.71	24d	8	1.25mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,250	$1.68	22d	9	1.25mi
17777 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$3,399	$3.61	2d	26	1.30mi
6800 E Mayo Blvd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,316	$2.35	3d	19	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $507 · $6,084/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $405,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $415,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $415,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Live the Luxury Life at The Edge in prestigious Grayhawk! 8k in concessions being offered! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom condo is located in the highly desirable gated community of The Edge in North Scottsdale. Enjoy fresh upgrades including a newer A/C system, newer stainless steel appliances, brand-new carpeting and tile flooring, along with fresh, two-tone paint. The smart split floor plan offers excellent privacy with a spacious primary suite featuring a soak-in tub and dual closets, while the second bedroom sits on the opposite side with a versatile office nook. Prime location close to the fitness center and pool. Very impressive community with four resort-style pools, spas, workout centers, social activities... Great, friendly community!!

16. 2026-05-13
    price $415,000 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Live the Luxury Life at The Edge in prestigious Grayhawk! 8k in concessions being offered! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom condo is located in the highly desirable gated community of The Edge in North Scottsdale. Enjoy fresh upgrades including a newer A/C system, newer stainless steel appliances, brand-new carpeting and tile flooring, along with fresh, two-tone paint. The smart split floor plan offers excellent privacy with a spacious primary suite featuring a soak-in tub and dual closets, while the second bedroom sits on the opposite side with a versatile office nook. Prime location close to the fitness center and pool. Very impressive community with four resort-style pools, spas, workout centers, social activities... Great, friendly community!!

17. 2026-04-28
    historical 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Live the Luxury Life at The Edge in prestigious Grayhawk! 8k in concessions being offered! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom condo is located in the highly desirable gated community of The Edge in North Scottsdale. Enjoy fresh upgrades including a newer A/C system, newer stainless steel appliances, brand-new carpeting and tile flooring, along with fresh, two-tone paint. The smart split floor plan offers excellent privacy with a spacious primary suite featuring a soak-in tub and dual closets, while the second bedroom sits on the opposite side with a versatile office nook. Prime location close to the fitness center and pool. Very impressive community with four resort-style pools, spas, workout centers, social activities... Great, friendly community!!

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $425,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Live the Luxury Life at The Edge in prestigious Grayhawk! 8k in concessions being offered! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom condo is located in the highly desirable gated community of The Edge in North Scottsdale. Enjoy fresh upgrades including a newer A/C system, newer stainless steel appliances, brand-new carpeting and tile flooring, along with fresh, two-tone paint. The smart split floor plan offers excellent privacy with a spacious primary suite featuring a soak-in tub and dual closets, while the second bedroom sits on the opposite side with a versatile office nook. Prime location close to the fitness center and pool. Very impressive community with four resort-style pools, spas, workout centers, social activities... Great, friendly community!!

19. 2023-11-15
    historical $1,700
20. 2023-11-01
    price $1,700
21. 2023-10-19
    price $1,728
22. 2023-10-14
    price $1,758
23. 2023-10-06
    listed $1,778
24. 2014-10-15
    historical
25. 2014-09-27
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,140/yr (+$95/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$1,533
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − HOA: −$6,084
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$16,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+119.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Rental Removed $1,700 RENT.
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $1,700 RENT.
• 2023-10-19 Price Changed $1,728 RENT.
• 2023-10-14 Price Changed $1,758 RENT.
• 2023-10-06 Listed for Rent $1,778 RENT.
• 2014-10-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-09-27 Listed $189,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,533 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.