2630 Tidewater Dr · Houston, TX 77045

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1960 7,008 sqft lot $92/sqft · 24% below area Est $211k · 24% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2630 Tidewater, this would be a great investment property. With some TLC you can truly make this one your own style. No HOA, low taxes. good location.

Key facts

• Investment property
• Low taxes
• Good location

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• GOOD LOCATION
• LOW TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 19% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,456
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -24.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2630 Tidewater Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,742 (0%)	0mo	$160,000	$92	100
2630 Umiak Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (+1%)	2mo	$270,000	$154	84
2623 Sockeye Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,679 (-4%)	2mo	$275,000	$164	82
2811 Sockeye Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,639 (-6%)	6mo	$240,000	$146	69
2910 Meiko Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-10%)	0mo	$260,000	$165	66
11710 Harristown Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-1%)	1mo	$265,000	$154	64
3018 Windy Royal Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	4mo	$191,990	$108	61
2739 Painted Sunrise Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-0%)	13mo	$312,888	$180	58
3203 Ripplebrook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,707 (-2%)	6mo	$184,900	$108	57
2926 Umiak Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-13%)	10mo	$249,000	$165	50
3139 Wuthering Heights Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-9%)	12mo	$199,000	$126	45
12534 Chiswick Rd	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+13%)	1mo	$263,000	$134	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,480
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,888
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,914/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	7d	1	0.55mi
3119 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	43d	1	0.58mi
3135 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	22d	1	0.61mi
3150 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	7d	1	0.63mi
6 W Orem Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,380	$1.21	43d	1	0.67mi
3215 Boynton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.69mi
3234 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.70mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,546	$1.36	3d	1	0.70mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,578	$1.39	11d	1	0.70mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,579	$1.39	43d	1	0.70mi
2201 W Orem Dr Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,554	$1.37	7d	1	0.70mi
3239 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,589	$1.21	16d	1	0.72mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,589	$1.40	11d	1	0.73mi
11826 Fortune Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.87mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.02mi
14435 Acuna Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,805	$1.21	43d	1	1.13mi
12806 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,636	$1.79	1d	18	1.21mi
1661 Nichole Woods Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,746	$1.52	5d	1	1.31mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	3d	1	1.39mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,726	$1.97	2d	23	1.44mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	16d	1	1.48mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Welcome to 2630 Tidewater, this would be a great investment property. With some TLC you can truly make this one your own style. No HOA, low taxes. good location.

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Welcome to 2630 Tidewater, this would be a great investment property. With some TLC you can truly make this one your own style. No HOA, low taxes. good location.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $160,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Welcome to 2630 Tidewater, this would be a great investment property. With some TLC you can truly make this one your own style. No HOA, low taxes. good location.

4. 2026-04-08
   listed $135,000 Active 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Welcome to 2630 Tidewater, this would be a great investment property. With some TLC you can truly make this one your own style. No HOA, low taxes. good location.

5. 2025-07-12
   historical
6. 2025-06-02
   listed $180,000 Active
7. 2025-06-02
   historical
8. 2025-04-07
   status Active
9. 2025-04-03
   historical
10. 2025-03-28
    price $180,000
11. 2025-03-10
    price $186,000
12. 2025-01-27
    price $188,000
13. 2024-12-30
    price $190,000
14. 2024-11-20
    price $192,000
15. 2024-11-06
    price $195,000
16. 2024-10-24
    listed $198,000 Active
17. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus
19. 2022-09-18
    status Pending
20. 2022-09-09
    status Option Pending
21. 2022-09-01
    status Active
22. 2022-08-30
    price $1,590
23. 2022-08-26
    status Option Pending
24. 2022-08-19
    price $157,000
25. 2022-08-10
    status Active
26. 2022-08-08
    price $1,660
27. 2022-08-05
    status Option Pending
28. 2022-07-27
    status Active
29. 2022-07-25
    status Pending
30. 2022-07-20
    status Option Pending
31. 2022-07-07
    listed $165,000 Active
32. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,914 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,914 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,914
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$274
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $1,590 RENT.
• 2022-08-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-19 Price Changed $157,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-08-08 Price Changed $1,660 RENT.
• 2022-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-07-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-07 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,914 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.