Plan 1458 Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$427,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plan 1458 is a beautifully designed two-story home that balances style, comfort, and functionality for modern living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a powder bath, a spacious dining area, a versatile game room and a 2-car garage, this home offers everything your family needs to live and grow. As you enter, you are greeted by tall ceilings in the family room, creating an open and airy atmosphere filled with abundant natural light from the many windows throughout the home. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining and family rooms-making it perfect for hosting gatherings or enjoying everyday moments. A large walk-in closet in the main bedroom provides exceptional storage, while the generously sized walk-in pantry ensures your kitchen remains organized and efficient. Upstairs, the game room with an overlook to the living area below offers flexible space for entertainment, study, or relaxation. Step outside to the inviting covered patio, ideal for outdoor dining, morning coffee, or unwinding at the end of the day. Thoughtfully crafted with versatile spaces and beautiful design details, Plan 1458 enhances both everyday living and special occasions.

Key facts

• Tall ceilings
• Two story home
• Versatile game room

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• VERSATILE GAME ROOM
• TALL CEILINGS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. The $427,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $486,352.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $428k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $322,710 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,352
• List price: $427,990
• Delta: -12.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1430 Terrain Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	5mo	$445,000	$197	74
4609 Timberdrift St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,311 (+7%)	6mo	$464,900	$201	72
4609 Clearcrest Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,031 (-6%)	2mo	$489,990	$241	69
2013 Slipchannel St	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,268 (+5%)	7mo	$514,900	$227	65
4034 Eagles Bluff Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+4%)	6mo	$459,000	$203	63
3845 Foot Hills Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$452,500	$200	63
1837 Flowing Ridge Rd	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,028 (-6%)	4mo	$489,900	$242	62
4021 Alpine St	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+7%)	0mo	$439,900	$190	60
1821 Rough Ridge Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,886 (-13%)	4mo	$425,000	$225	60
1206 Deacon Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+4%)	7mo	$449,000	$199	55
4637 Hanging Arches Ave	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,337 (+8%)	7mo	$510,000	$218	50
622 Grove Park Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,958 (-9%)	6mo	$385,000	$197	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-126,114
• Equity at exit: $72,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-157,882
• Equity at exit: $42,051

Cash invested: $136,179 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$608 /mo · $7,295/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,255

Max offer price $368,903

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,588
• Closing costs: $14,591
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1810 Hidden Water Trl Midlothian, TX	3.0	3.0	2456	$3,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.22mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	4d	1	0.46mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $427,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $427,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $427,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $427,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $427,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $427,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $427,990 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $427,990 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $427,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $427,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $427,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $427,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $427,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $427,990 Active 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Plan 1458 is a beautifully designed two-story home that balances style, comfort, and functionality for modern living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a powder bath, a spacious dining area, a versatile game room and a 2-car garage, this home offers everything your family needs to live and grow. As you enter, you are greeted by tall ceilings in the family room, creating an open and airy atmosphere filled with abundant natural light from the many windows throughout the home. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining and family rooms-making it perfect for hosting gatherings or enjoying everyday moments. A large walk-in closet in the main bedroom provides exceptional storage, while the generously sized walk-in pantry ensures your kitchen remains organized and efficient. Upstairs, the game room with an overlook to the living area below offers flexible space for entertainment, study, or relaxation. Step outside to the inviting covered patio, ideal for outdoor dining, morning coffee, or unwinding at the end of the day. Thoughtfully crafted with versatile spaces and beautiful design details, Plan 1458 enhances both everyday living and special occasions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,243
• − Property taxes: −$7,295
• − Insurance: −$2,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,098
• − Management: −$3,098
• − Depreciation: −$14,148
• Taxable loss: −$18,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $427,990 Zillow