2951 Blackfish Rd · Charleston, SC 29455

$279,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1964 0.48 ac lot Est $345k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity Under $300K on Johns Island!Welcome to 2951 Blackfish Rd, a rare chance to own property on highly desirable Johns Island at an affordable price point. Located within walking distance from the Whitney Lake area, this home offers convenience, growth potential, and strong upside in a rapidly appreciating market. Priced under $300,000, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to renovate and build equity. The home will require some TLC, but the location alone makes it a standout opportunity. Whether you're looking for your next project or a value-add investment, this is your chance to secure a property in one of the Charleston area's most in-deman

Key facts

• Walking distance
• Whitney lake area
• In-demand locations

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE
• WHITNEY LAKE AREA
• IN-DEMAND LOCATIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; John IS Water Co service
• Home design: Single-family detached home; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot size under 0.5 acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, primary bedroom on lower level
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Interior features: One-level layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.4% in Charleston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#22 in SC, #3,336 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Charleston 01 (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #7 of 80 in SC (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Haut Gap Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #68 of 229 statewide, top 31%, 444 students, 100% FRL); St. Johns High (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C, #120 of 196 statewide, top 64%, 387 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 44% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 568 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,156 units permitted in Charleston County in 2024 (857 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charleston County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $279k implies a 830% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,605 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3020 Marlin Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+12%)	14mo	$385,000	$353	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-20,798
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $12,714
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29455

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 568
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,776/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2030 Wildts Battery Blvd Johns Island, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,444	$2.65	3d	10	0.44mi
555 Linger Longer Dr Johns Island, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$3,199	$3.14	3d	15	0.91mi
60 Fenwick Hall Allee #616 Johns Island, SC	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,999	$1.81	23d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $279,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $279,000 Active
15. 1984-11-21
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,776
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $59
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14
• After-tax cash flow: $4,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charleston 01
• NCES district ID: 4501440
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,376
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3018
• State rank: #7 of 80 in SC

Livability — Charleston

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #3336

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charleston County · 366,793 people
• City population: 200,573
• Metro: Charleston-North Charleston, SC
• Population (ZIP): 27,576
• Household income: $121,372
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Charleston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,562 people
• By 2030: 525,921 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 612,189 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 691,627 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 847,979 · +76.5%
• By 2100: 926,482 · +92.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Charleston

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 51.9% · R 46.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+12.9 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+2.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.02%
• Current HPI: 297.7408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Charleston-North Charleston, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+830.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $279,000 Charleston Trident MLS
• 1984-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,776 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.