15614 Lemon Pepper Crk · San Antonio, TX 78073

$275,605

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot Est $297k · 7% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Garner, a 5 bedroom, 2.5 bath floor plan featured at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 2203 square feet of living space, 2 stories and a 2-car garage that provides direct interior access to the home. Step through the foyer into a bright, open-concept living space where the kitchen, dining area and family room flow seamlessly together - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and shaker style cabinetry, as well as a large kitchen island with a deep farmhouse sink. The dining area connects naturally to the family room, creating a warm, connected atmosphere filled with natura

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Deep farmhouse sink
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• DEEP FARMHOUSE SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: PRESERVE AT MEDINA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; HOA fee $396 annually; Neighborhood amenities include park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water and sewer provided by SAWS; Electric and gas supplied by CPS; HERS rated with low-flow commode
• Home design: New construction by D.R. Horton; Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built new (approximate age: 0)
• Exterior features: Patio slab; Privacy fence; Sprinkler system; Double pane windows; Street paved with curbs and streetlights

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Ice maker connection
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 11 x 11; Bedroom 3: 12 x 12; Bedroom 4: 13 x 11; Bedroom 5: 11 x 11; Primary bedroom: 12 x 14
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bath; Primary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with living/dining room combination; Island kitchen with breakfast bar; Solid countertops; Vent fan; Smoke alarm and carbon monoxide detector; Attic with pull-down stairs; All window coverings remain; High-speed internet available; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level; Washer and dryer connections; Gas water heater; Utility room: 8 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 75% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $210,969 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,405
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15703 Cardamom	0.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (-1%)	4mo	$231,000	$106	88
4235 Paprika Grv	0.20mi	5/2.5	1,971 (-10%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	72
4235 Marjoram Lndg	0.24mi	5/2.5	1,971 (-10%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	70
15423 Mint Patch Mdw	0.27mi	5/2.5	1,971 (-10%)	2mo	$256,765	$130	68
4335 Rocky Neck Cv	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-0%)	8mo	$335,900	$153	66
4223 Marjoram Lndg	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	1mo	$254,795	$135	65
4230 Paprika Grv	0.16mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	6mo	$268,499	$142	64
4239 Marjoram Lndg	0.25mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	64
15431 Mint Patch Mdw	0.26mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	2mo	$254,795	$135	63
4267 Marjoram Lndg	0.29mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	62
15527 Mint Patch Mdw	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-14%)	6mo	$268,499	$142	60
15210 Snug Hbr	0.59mi	5/2.5	2,531 (+15%)	2mo	$259,999	$103	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,218
• Equity at exit: $117,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $67,977
• Equity at exit: $176,874

Cash invested: $77,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,134/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $236,392

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,901
• Closing costs: $8,268
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15559 Mint Patch Mdw Unit 1 Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$600	$0.24	43d	1	0.17mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,305	$1.47	1d	6	0.36mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	14d	1	0.39mi
15114 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	3.5	2198	$2,000	$0.91	21d	1	0.39mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$2,400	$1.35	1d	1	0.41mi
15237 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2542	$2,100	$0.83	43d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $275,605 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,605 New 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,605 New 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,605 New 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,605 New 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,605 New 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,605 New 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-28
   listed $275,605 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,134
• − Insurance: −$1,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,098
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,944
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $275,605 LERA