165 Daylily Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$242,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,501 sqft · Land · 209 Days on market

Built 2025 5,052 sqft lot $162/sqft · 9% above area Est $223k · 9% over $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing 165 Daylily in Elgin's premier community, Harvest Ridge! This Two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. The kitchen features spacious 42-inch upper cabinets, 3cm granite countertops, gas range, and a black appliance package. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. Harvest Ridge is designed for connection and convenience, featuring top-tier amenities like a resort-style pool, sports courts, fishing ponds, and a coffee bar. With the brand-new onsite elementary school now open and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning regular events, this new home in Elgin offers more than comfort - it offers a vibrant lifestyle.

Key facts

• 5,052 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $243k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-476/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $200,132 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,750
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: 9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $130,046
• Equity at exit: $218,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $385,435
• Equity at exit: $472,076

Cash invested: $68,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,103/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $235,976

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,748
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.23mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.23mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.40mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.45mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	0.49mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.58mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.72mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.73mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.75mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.76mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.81mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.86mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.87mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.87mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.88mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.88mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.89mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.90mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.93mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.93mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.94mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	0.95mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.95mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.98mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.98mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.14mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,990 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $242,990 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Introducing 165 Daylily in Elgin's premier community, Harvest Ridge! This Two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. The kitchen features spacious 42-inch upper cabinets, 3cm granite countertops, gas range, and a black appliance package. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. Harvest Ridge is designed for connection and convenience, featuring top-tier amenities like a resort-style pool, sports courts, fishing ponds, and a coffee bar. With the brand-new onsite elementary school now open and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning regular events, this new home in Elgin offers more than comfort - it offers a vibrant lifestyle.

15. 2026-03-31
    price $242,990 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    MLS# 9631479 - Built by Brohn Homes - Ready Now! ~ Introducing 165 Daylily in Elgin's premier community, Harvest Ridge! This Two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. The kitchen features spacious 42-inch upper cabinets, 3cm granite countertops, gas range, and a black appliance package. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. Harvest Ridge is designed for connection and convenience, featuring top-tier amenities like a resort-style pool, sports courts, fishing ponds, and a coffee bar. With the brand-new onsite elementary school now open and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning regular events, this new home in Elgin offers more than comfort – it offers a vibrant lifestyle.

16. 2026-01-22
    listed $247,210 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Introducing 165 Daylily in Elgin's premier community, Harvest Ridge! This Two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. The kitchen features spacious 42-inch upper cabinets, 3cm granite countertops, gas range, and a black appliance package. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. Harvest Ridge is designed for connection and convenience, featuring top-tier amenities like a resort-style pool, sports courts, fishing ponds, and a coffee bar. With the brand-new onsite elementary school now open and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning regular events, this new home in Elgin offers more than comfort - it offers a vibrant lifestyle.

17. 2025-11-21
    listed $247,210 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    MLS# 9631479 - Built by Brohn Homes - Ready Now! ~ Introducing 165 Daylily in Elgin's premier community, Harvest Ridge! This Two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. The kitchen features spacious 42-inch upper cabinets, 3cm granite countertops, gas range, and a black appliance package. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. Harvest Ridge is designed for connection and convenience, featuring top-tier amenities like a resort-style pool, sports courts, fishing ponds, and a coffee bar. With the brand-new onsite elementary school now open and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning regular events, this new home in Elgin offers more than comfort – it offers a vibrant lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,447 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,344/yr (+$195/mo · 111.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,611
• − Property taxes: −$2,103
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable loss: −$4,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $242,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $247,210 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Listed $247,210 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,103 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.