8941 Malibu St #1 · Lely Resort, FL 34113

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · Condo · 196 Days on market

Built 2009 $1237/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW, CHECK OUT THIS PRICE! This bright and airy 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo located in Ole' at the highly sought-after Lely Resort community, has been reduced to an unbelievable price. Offering a private entry and an attached 2-car garage, this residence combines comfort, privacy, and resort-style living. Inside, you’ll find a spacious, sun-filled layout with a dedicated laundry room and a well-designed floor plan. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet and access to a private balcony, perfect for enjoying morning coffee or unwinding in the evening. Residents of Ole' enjoy an impressive array of amenities, including a resort-style pool, on-site restaurant, fitness center, mo

Key facts

• Secure entry
• Attached garage
• Community pool

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SECURE ENTRY
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 623 units (5 units in building); 1 unit per floor; building has 2 floors
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo fee ($3,710); Total annual recurring fees $14,840; One-time fees $100; Professional management; Maintenance covers irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, sewer, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, community room, golf course, restaurant, theater, community park, basketball, bike and jog path, sidewalk, and streetlight; Community type: Condo/Hotel

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Patrolled community
• Utilities: Water assessment paid; Sewer assessment paid; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1-3) building; 2-story building; Built in 2009; Rear exposure faces northwest; Located in Lely Resort (OLE development)
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior finish; Patrolled security; Landscaped area view; Paved road access; Zero lot line; Deeded restrictions with no commercial use

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Fire sprinkler; Foyer; Smoke detectors; Tray ceiling; Walk-in closet; Pantry; Great room; Open porch/lanai; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,211/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.56%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $52,647
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $226,669
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34113

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 597
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,237
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,304
• Net cashflow: $1,273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,599

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8949 Malibu St #304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.03mi
8055 Tiger Cv Unit 6-606 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	23d	1	0.08mi
8085 Celeste Dr #812 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1480	$6,000	$4.05	14d	1	0.09mi
8073 Panther Trl #1404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$5,500	$3.79	23d	1	0.11mi
8992 Cambria Cir Unit 1546062P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,097	$1.55	14d	1	0.15mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5113 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$7,000	$4.28	23d	1	0.18mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5216 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$4,500	$2.74	23d	1	0.18mi
8989 Cambria Cir #1807 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2008	$7,000	$3.49	14d	1	0.18mi
8693 Querce Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$5,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.21mi
8986 Cambria Cir Unit 22 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$6,000	$4.27	23d	1	0.24mi
8986 Cambria Cir #2204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	23d	1	0.24mi
8135 Celeste Dr #4218 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$7,500	$5.08	23d	1	0.29mi
8177 Saratoga Dr #1001 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$8,000	$4.26	23d	1	0.29mi
8177 Saratoga Dr #1002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$9,000	$4.79	23d	1	0.29mi
9025 Alturas St #3102 Naples, FL	2.0	3.0	1531	$3,400	$2.22	23d	1	0.30mi
8175 Celeste Dr #1230 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$2,775	$1.88	23d	1	0.31mi
8175 Celeste Dr #1229 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,975	$1.81	23d	1	0.31mi
8175 Celeste Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,395	$1.64	23d	1	0.31mi
8200 Saratoga Dr #401 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$8,500	$4.52	23d	1	0.35mi
7278 Salerno Ct Unit 1049689P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$6,683	$4.34	14d	1	0.38mi
7294 Salerno Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$4,250	$2.76	23d	1	0.38mi
7310 Salerno Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$5,000	$3.25	23d	1	0.39mi
9054 Capistrano St N #4002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$6,000	$3.58	23d	1	0.40mi
9054 Capistrano St N #4003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$2,495	$1.80	23d	1	0.40mi
8519 Chase Preserve Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1827	$9,000	$4.93	23d	1	0.40mi
8138 Saratoga Dr #2201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$8,000	$4.26	23d	1	0.44mi
8664 Genova Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$3,200	$2.06	23d	1	0.44mi
8419 Benelli Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,300	$1.74	23d	1	0.45mi
8081 Players Cove Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2091	$9,500	$4.54	23d	1	0.46mi
8416 Benelli Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2046	$6,000	$2.93	21d	1	0.47mi
8060 Players Cove Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2091	$4,800	$2.30	23d	1	0.48mi
8965 Malibu Ln #802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,595	$3.72	23d	1	0.48mi
9082 Capistrano St N Unit 48-5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1227	$6,500	$5.30	23d	1	0.48mi
9066 Albion Ln N Unit 51-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1989	$7,000	$3.52	23d	1	0.51mi
9066 Albion Ln N #5106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$6,500	$3.79	21d	1	0.51mi
7114 Marconi Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.51mi
9071 Albion Ln N #5706 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1441	$2,200	$1.53	23d	1	0.52mi
9073 Rialto St #6002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	23d	1	0.53mi
8051 Players Cove Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2091	$8,000	$3.83	23d	1	0.56mi
9076 Rialto St Unit 62 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$7,500	$4.62	23d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,237 · $14,844/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $285,000 Pending 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $285,000 Pending With Contingencies 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-05-23
    price $285,000
13. 2026-05-08
    price $299,900
14. 2026-04-14
    price $315,000
15. 2026-04-08
    price $330,000
16. 2026-04-04
    price $355,000
17. 2026-03-22
    price $365,000
18. 2026-03-04
    price $375,000
19. 2026-02-06
    price $380,000
20. 2026-01-29
    price $389,900
21. 2026-01-04
    price $394,900
22. 2025-11-28
    listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$6,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,962
• − Management: −$5,962
• − HOA: −$14,844
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $12,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,045
• After-tax cash flow: $12,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lely Resort

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #17981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lely Resort, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,056
• Household income: $81,674
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 279.4232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $285,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $315,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $330,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $355,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $365,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $380,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $389,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $394,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $399,900 NAPLESMLS