218 N Avenue Ave N · Lubbock, TX 79401

$122,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 9,330 sqft lot $68/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four-bedroom, two-bath home offers a fantastic opportunity for both homeowners and investors, with the added bonus of a vacant lot next door that is also available for purchase. Whether you're looking to expand, build, or increase your investment potential, this unique setup provides flexibility and long-term value. With a functional layout and strong possibilities for future development, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a smart investment opportunity with room to grow.

Key facts

• 9,330 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 120 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,273/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($27k/yr) (locally 1389% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,020 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,222
• List price: $122,000
• Delta: -62.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $59,159
• Equity at exit: $82,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $180,144
• Equity at exit: $154,020

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79401

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 N Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	43d	1	0.49mi
707 Avenue T Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1559	$474	$0.30	43d	45	0.89mi
607 Main St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1500	$1,049	$0.70	43d	1	1.16mi
1909 16th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1312	$1,600	$1.22	21d	1	1.40mi
2102 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	1.45mi
2119 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	1.47mi
2122 16th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1295	$1,025	$0.79	43d	1	1.49mi
2108 N Avenue L Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,299	$0.96	43d	1	1.50mi
2125 N Texas Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    listed $122,000 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    This four-bedroom, two-bath home offers a fantastic opportunity for both homeowners and investors, with the added bonus of a vacant lot next door that is also available for purchase. Whether you're looking to expand, build, or increase your investment potential, this unique setup provides flexibility and long-term value. With a functional layout and strong possibilities for future development, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a smart investment opportunity with room to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 47.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,741
• Household income: $26,980
• Rent vs Own: 91.1% rent · 8.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 233.4915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $122,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,514 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.