10414 Richardson St · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$264,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1959 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been dreaming of owning your first home, this cozy property is ready to make that dream come true. SELLER OFFERING UP TO 10K TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS! NEW ROOF, NEW WATER HEATER, BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), NO HOA, NO FLOOD ZONE, NO CDD. Step inside to find a bright, updated kitchen with BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), offering the perfect space to cook, gather, and make memories. Enjoy the outdoors on the spacious back patio — ideal for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or quiet mornings with your coffee. The home’s inviting layout and comfortable feel make it a wonderful place to start your next chapter. Affordable, charming, and move-in ready — this home is waiting for you. Come see it in person and make it yours!

Key facts

• No cdd
• Updated kitchen
• No flood zone

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BACK PATIO
• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• NO CDD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $265k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,774
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $60,140
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,113/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Candleberry Woods Ln Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,900	$1.33	24d	1	0.80mi
8828 Kanawha Rd Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	24d	1	1.06mi
9711 Magnolia View Ct Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,682	$2.51	2d	31	1.14mi
8683 Holly Grove Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,299	$1.51	2d	6	1.22mi
7865 Carriage Pointe Dr Unit 3/2 Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	24d	1	1.27mi
11424 Sage Canyon Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,300	$1.57	24d	1	1.35mi
11525 Southern Creek Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,495	$1.73	14d	1	1.36mi
11436 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,170	$1.62	4d	1	1.38mi
9852 Indiana St Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,700	$2.36	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,900 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    price $264,900 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming of owning your first home, this cozy property is ready to make that dream come true. SELLER OFFERING UP TO 10K TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS! NEW ROOF, NEW WATER HEATER, BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), NO HOA, NO FLOOD ZONE, NO CDD. Step inside to find a bright, updated kitchen with BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), offering the perfect space to cook, gather, and make memories. Enjoy the outdoors on the spacious back patio — ideal for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or quiet mornings with your coffee. The home’s inviting layout and comfortable feel make it a wonderful place to start your next chapter. Affordable, charming, and move-in ready — this home is waiting for you. Come see it in person and make it yours!

16. 2026-02-17
    status Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming of owning your first home, this cozy property is ready to make that dream come true. SELLER OFFERING UP TO 10K TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS! NEW ROOF, NEW WATER HEATER, BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), NO HOA, NO FLOOD ZONE, NO CDD. Step inside to find a bright, updated kitchen with BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), offering the perfect space to cook, gather, and make memories. Enjoy the outdoors on the spacious back patio — ideal for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or quiet mornings with your coffee. The home’s inviting layout and comfortable feel make it a wonderful place to start your next chapter. Affordable, charming, and move-in ready — this home is waiting for you. Come see it in person and make it yours!

17. 2025-11-06
    listed $279,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    If you’ve been dreaming of owning your first home, this cozy property is ready to make that dream come true. SELLER OFFERING UP TO 10K TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS! NEW ROOF, NEW WATER HEATER, BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), NO HOA, NO FLOOD ZONE, NO CDD. Step inside to find a bright, updated kitchen with BRAND- NEW APPLIANCES (not pictured), offering the perfect space to cook, gather, and make memories. Enjoy the outdoors on the spacious back patio — ideal for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or quiet mornings with your coffee. The home’s inviting layout and comfortable feel make it a wonderful place to start your next chapter. Affordable, charming, and move-in ready — this home is waiting for you. Come see it in person and make it yours!

18. 2025-06-04
    soldstatus $83,000
19. 2016-09-13
    historical
20. 2016-03-01
    listed $94,900 Active
21. 2007-01-23
    soldstatus $85,000
22. 2006-12-29
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 2006-09-04
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,113
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$1,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$452
• After-tax cash flow: $3,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+140.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-01 Listed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-04 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,113 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.