411 Tropic Dr W · Memphis, FL 34221

$116,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 97 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition $212/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Leisure Lake, a charming 55+ cooperative in Palmetto, Florida! NOT LOT RENT- this is a co-op community, and the sales price includes the share! This home is very deceiving from the front- although it is a single wide, it has over 1,600 square feet of space under roof! The main structure of the home features a living room, kitchen with eat-in space, both bedrooms, and a full bathroom. The master suite at the end of the home was renovated to also include a walk-in closet and second full bathroom, with walk-in shower and washer and dryer! There is an additional living / hobby room attached to the living room, which really opens the space! Between the master bathroom and hobby room y

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closet
• Hobby room

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECOND FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• ADDITIONAL LIVING ROOM
• HOBBY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Third-party listing contact available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $212) with required approval; Association fee covers maintenance of grounds, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool; association recreation owned; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces South; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated living area 924 sq ft
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $116,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,560 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.85%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,248
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
354 Quiet Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	965 (+4%)	1mo	$98,000	$102	87
364 Quiet Way #364	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	7mo	$130,000	$135	86
334 Peace Mnr	0.05mi	2/1.0	932 (+1%)	10mo	$107,500	$115	83
478 Church Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0	972 (+5%)	10mo	$45,000	$46	75
111 Lakeview Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	890 (-4%)	5mo	$71,000	$80	75
78 Leisure Way	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,012 (+10%)	6mo	$60,000	$59	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,824
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $31,028
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	23d	1	0.55mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	23d	1	0.59mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	0.69mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	23d	1	0.69mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	23d	1	0.71mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.92mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	0.93mi
516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	16d	1	0.95mi
518 12th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	16d	1	0.96mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	23d	1	1.00mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	2d	1	1.01mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL	1.0	2.0	1106	$3,200	$2.89	23d	1	1.02mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	2d	1	1.11mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	1.31mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $212 · $2,544/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $116,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $116,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $116,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $5,052
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $5,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with some repairs and maintenance needed. Updating the kitchen, interior walls, and landscaping would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and need to be replaced or updated.
• Major bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and need to be replaced or updated.
• Major interior walls — The paint is peeling and the walls need to be repainted.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and needs to be trimmed and maintained.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Updating the kitchen will make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale update the interior walls and paint — Updating the interior walls and paint will make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both update the landscaping — Updating the landscaping will improve the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are outdated and need to be replaced or updated.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are outdated and need to be replaced or updated.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The paint is peeling and the walls need to be repainted.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and needs to be trimmed and maintained.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Updating the kitchen will make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale update the interior walls and paint — Updating the interior walls and paint will make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both update the landscaping — Updating the landscaping will improve the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid