1627 Mundell Rd · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72631

$849,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2014 7.88 ac lot $253/sqft · 33% above area Est $639k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a Beautiful Beaver lake view home without all the restrictions? You've found it! This Custom built timber frame cedar "Real Log Home" is located on 7.88 UNRESTRICTED acres which allows you to use it as a Primary residence, or if using it part time, you can rent it out as a VRBO for extra income. The property is being offer complete with all furnishings, fixtures & appliances so you can begin your Lake Life immediately after closing. The home is currently 3350 sq. ft. , but could easily be increased. There are two large unfinished areas you enter from the outside on the lower level which could be made into more bedrooms or living areas with heat and ac available to tie into. You'll also enjoy the large decks and fire pit while taking in the beautiful views of Beaver Lake. Starkey marina is only 2.4 miles away for all your boating needs. This property is currently used as a nightly rental and cannot be shown when rented so book your showing ahead. Additional info is at: www. EurekaSpringsVacationRental.com

Key facts

• Large decks
• Fire pit
• Beaver lake view

Tags

• BEAVER LAKE VIEW
• CUSTOM BUILT TIMBER FRAME
• 7.88 UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• LARGE UNFINISHED AREAS
• LARGE DECKS
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $849k).
• Recommended offer: $798k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($798k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $710k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $798,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $638,965
• List price: $849,000
• Delta: 32.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2127 Mundell Rd	0.41mi	3/3.0	3,120 (-7%)	21mo	$690,000	$221	48
679 Lakeshore Dr	0.75mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,352 (+0%)	12mo	$558,000	$166	42
174 Timberlake Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,792 (+13%)	12mo	$1,375,000	$363	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $414,097
• Equity at exit: $605,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $1,125,950
• Equity at exit: $1,166,483

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72631

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$540 /mo · $6,480/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,845
• Net cashflow: $1,594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,767

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
366 Lakeside Rd Unit 1221805P Eureka Springs, AR	4.0	3.0	3358	$8,777	$2.61	21d	1	0.93mi
814 County Road 1524 Unit 1340101P Eureka Springs, AR	4.0	3.5	3056	$8,799	$2.88	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $849,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $849,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $849,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $849,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $849,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $849,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-05-18
   price $849,000 1047-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

   Looking for a Beautiful Beaver lake view home without all the restrictions? You've found it! This Custom built timber frame cedar "Real Log Home" is located on 7.88 UNRESTRICTED acres which allows you to use it as a Primary residence, or if using it part time, you can rent it out as a VRBO for extra income. The property is being offer complete with all furnishings, fixtures & appliances so you can begin your Lake Life immediately after closing. The home is currently 3350 sq. ft. , but could easily be increased. There are two large unfinished areas you enter from the outside on the lower level which could be made into more bedrooms or living areas with heat and ac available to tie into. You'll also enjoy the large decks and fire pit while taking in the beautiful views of Beaver Lake. Starkey marina is only 2.4 miles away for all your boating needs. This property is currently used as a nightly rental and cannot be shown when rented so book your showing ahead. Additional info is at: www. EurekaSpringsVacationRental.com

9. 2026-03-19
   listed $877,777 Active 1047-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

   Looking for a Beautiful Beaver lake view home without all the restrictions? You've found it! This Custom built timber frame cedar "Real Log Home" is located on 7.88 UNRESTRICTED acres which allows you to use it as a Primary residence, or if using it part time, you can rent it out as a VRBO for extra income. The property is being offer complete with all furnishings, fixtures & appliances so you can begin your Lake Life immediately after closing. The home is currently 3350 sq. ft. , but could easily be increased. There are two large unfinished areas you enter from the outside on the lower level which could be made into more bedrooms or living areas with heat and ac available to tie into. You'll also enjoy the large decks and fire pit while taking in the beautiful views of Beaver Lake. Starkey marina is only 2.4 miles away for all your boating needs. This property is currently used as a nightly rental and cannot be shown when rented so book your showing ahead. Additional info is at: www. EurekaSpringsVacationRental.com

10. 2021-07-13
    soldstatus $710,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,480 · $540/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,480 · $540/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $105,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$6,480
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,434
• − Management: −$8,434
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable income: $5,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $17,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0505970
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,912
• Composite: 34.55/100
• National rank: #5171
• State rank: #61 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,084

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.31%
• Current HPI: 260.9347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+19.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $849,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $877,777 NWARMLS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $710,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,480 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.