120 S Lake Ave · Vandalia, IL 62471

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,871 sqft · Other public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot $27/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 161 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.9% in Vandalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#348 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Vandalia CUSD 203 (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #414 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.50%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,613
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -73.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $24,225
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $62,836
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62471

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,374/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $502

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $49,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $54,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

17. 2026-04-21
    price $59,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

18. 2026-04-21
    price $64,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

19. 2026-03-23
    price $69,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

20. 2026-02-23
    price $79,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

21. 2026-01-07
    listed $89,900 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Welcome Home to 120 S. Lake Avenue! This ranch-style home features 3 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms and approximately 1,871 square feet! This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative though 2/7/2026. Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition Taxes prorated at 100 precent. EM MUST BE CERTIFIED FUNDS. Info not guaranteed. Seller does not provide survey. Equal Housing Opportunity. AS-IS

22. 2010-04-14
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,374 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,374 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,374
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,358
• After-tax cash flow: $4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vandalia CUSD 203
• NCES district ID: 1740140
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,995
• Composite: 18.33/100
• National rank: #8948
• State rank: #414 of 620 in IL

Livability — Vandalia

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #7078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vandalia, IL
• City population: 10,309
• Population (ZIP): 10,309

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,667 people
• By 2030: 21,362 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 20,602 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 19,669 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 16,870 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 12,861 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.7) · D 17.0% · R 81.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.7 2020: R+61.8 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.05%
• Current HPI: 133.4945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $64,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $89,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,374 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.