4245 Frasier Ln · Pace, FL 32571

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2001 0.28 ac lot Est $286k · at est. ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

~~NEW HVAC AND RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF~~ This charming property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot and located in the Spencer Oaks subdivision in the heart of Pace. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and has its own separate dining area. The living room includes a fireplace and has ample space for relaxing evenings with family and friends. The master bedroom and bath are also spacious with a double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Equally impressive is the backyard, which features a large, open lawn area ideal for children’s play, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the fresh air while sitting under the pergola. There is also a nice size yard building for all your storage needs as well as gutters along the house. ~~ SELLER TO CONTRIBUTE A FLOORING CREDIT~~

Key facts

• New ceiling fans
• 2023 hvac
• 2019 roof

Tags

• 2019 ROOF
• 2023 HVAC
• 2026 GAS WATER HEATER
• NEWLY INSTALLED LVP FLOORING
• NEWLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• NEW CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County maintained road access; Green energy features: insulation, insulated walls, ridge vent
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper electrical wiring; Cable available
• Home design: One-story home; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Resale property; Homestead; Has fireplace
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Yard building (outbuilding); Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; New kitchen sink and faucet; New cabinet hardware; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: New LVP flooring in updated areas
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom updated with new countertop, sinks, faucets, shower fixtures and toilet; Secondary bathroom updated with new vanity sink, mirror, faucet, shower fixtures and toilet; New LVP flooring in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fan(s); High-speed internet; Double pane windows; Blinds; Updated bathrooms; Updated kitchen; Fresh paint throughout
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,253 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,395
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4741 Sago Palm Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+0%)	3mo	$320,000	$204	85
4971 Spencer Oaks Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+1%)	5mo	$258,000	$164	82
4234 Southern Palm Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+0%)	4mo	$316,000	$201	82
4745 Sago Palm Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+6%)	0mo	$319,000	$192	77
4888 Makenna Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+1%)	4mo	$288,500	$183	72
4722 Majestic Palm St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+8%)	2mo	$339,990	$202	69
4703 Santa Rosa Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+1%)	2mo	$285,000	$180	67
4769 Pine Ln	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,666 (+6%)	0mo	$168,000	$101	67
4344 Forte St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+0%)	2mo	$195,000	$125	63
4751 W Spencer Field Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+8%)	4mo	$147,000	$87	63
4762 Pine Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,747 (+12%)	5mo	$220,000	$126	57
4930 E Spencer Field Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-6%)	2mo	$320,000	$217	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,068
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-58,139
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $272,144

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4203 Frasier Ln Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,195	$1.25	23d	1	0.13mi
4742 Spencer Oaks Blvd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,925	$1.08	23d	1	0.24mi
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $289,900 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Contingent 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    historical Contingent
11. 2026-04-30
    price $289,900
12. 2026-04-09
    listed $299,900 Active
13. 2024-08-12
    soldstatus $262,500
14. 2024-08-09
    status Pending 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    ~~NEW HVAC AND RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF~~ This charming property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot and located in the Spencer Oaks subdivision in the heart of Pace. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and has its own separate dining area. The living room includes a fireplace and has ample space for relaxing evenings with family and friends. The master bedroom and bath are also spacious with a double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Equally impressive is the backyard, which features a large, open lawn area ideal for children’s play, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the fresh air while sitting under the pergola. There is also a nice size yard building for all your storage needs as well as gutters along the house. ~~ SELLER TO CONTRIBUTE A FLOORING CREDIT~~

15. 2024-08-09
    soldstatus $262,500 Sold 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    ~~NEW HVAC AND RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF~~ This charming property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot and located in the Spencer Oaks subdivision in the heart of Pace. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and has its own separate dining area. The living room includes a fireplace and has ample space for relaxing evenings with family and friends. The master bedroom and bath are also spacious with a double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Equally impressive is the backyard, which features a large, open lawn area ideal for children’s play, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the fresh air while sitting under the pergola. There is also a nice size yard building for all your storage needs as well as gutters along the house. ~~ SELLER TO CONTRIBUTE A FLOORING CREDIT~~

16. 2024-07-09
    historical Contingent 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    ~~NEW HVAC AND RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF~~ This charming property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot and located in the Spencer Oaks subdivision in the heart of Pace. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and has its own separate dining area. The living room includes a fireplace and has ample space for relaxing evenings with family and friends. The master bedroom and bath are also spacious with a double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Equally impressive is the backyard, which features a large, open lawn area ideal for children’s play, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the fresh air while sitting under the pergola. There is also a nice size yard building for all your storage needs as well as gutters along the house. ~~ SELLER TO CONTRIBUTE A FLOORING CREDIT~~

17. 2024-05-24
    listed $274,900 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    ~~NEW HVAC AND RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF~~ This charming property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot and located in the Spencer Oaks subdivision in the heart of Pace. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and has its own separate dining area. The living room includes a fireplace and has ample space for relaxing evenings with family and friends. The master bedroom and bath are also spacious with a double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Equally impressive is the backyard, which features a large, open lawn area ideal for children’s play, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the fresh air while sitting under the pergola. There is also a nice size yard building for all your storage needs as well as gutters along the house. ~~ SELLER TO CONTRIBUTE A FLOORING CREDIT~~

18. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus $130,000 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Great Curb Appeal In Pace! This lovely home has three bedrooms two full bathrooms and over 1500sqft of living space. Featuring an open, split floor plan, family room boasts vaulted ceilings and a fireplace for our chilly winters. Kitchen comes equipped with appliances that convey and formal dining room just off the kitchen. Master bedroom is spacious and bath offers a double vanity, tub/shower combo and walk-in closets. Laundry room has some additional storage room and backyard is completely privacy fenced and welcomes children and pets. Do not miss your chance to view this home!

19. 2016-10-07
    historical
20. 2016-09-27
    listed $127,000 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Great Curb Appeal In Pace! This lovely home has three bedrooms two full bathrooms and over 1500sqft of living space. Featuring an open, split floor plan, family room boasts vaulted ceilings and a fireplace for our chilly winters. Kitchen comes equipped with appliances that convey and formal dining room just off the kitchen. Master bedroom is spacious and bath offers a double vanity, tub/shower combo and walk-in closets. Laundry room has some additional storage room and backyard is completely privacy fenced and welcomes children and pets. Do not miss your chance to view this home!

21. 2016-04-08
    listed $101,475
22. 2016-04-08
    listed $101,475
23. 2014-07-16
    historical
24. 2013-11-22
    listed $99,900
25. 2007-09-15
    historical
26. 2007-03-22
    listed $152,500
27. 2004-09-03
    historical
28. 2004-08-31
    listed $139,900
29. 2000-08-22
    soldstatus $578,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-49.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $289,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $299,900 PARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $262,500 Public Records
• 2024-08-09 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Sold (MLS) $262,500 PARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Listed $274,900 PARMLS
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) $130,000 PARMLS
• 2016-10-07 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2016-09-27 Listed $127,000 PARMLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $101,475 ECAR
• 2016-04-08 Listed $101,475 NAMLS
• 2014-07-16 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2013-11-22 Listed $99,900 PARMLS
• 2007-09-15 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2007-03-22 Listed $152,500 PARMLS
• 2004-09-03 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2004-08-31 Listed $139,900 PARMLS
• 2000-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $578,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,204 · +26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.