22808 N Cherokee Ln · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$345,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1994 10,045 sqft lot $209/sqft · 20% below area Est $431k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come find your Sun City West diamond in the rough. New exterior paint job and excellent curb appeal welcome you into your split floor plan. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and walk-in closets. Large Arizona room adds to the total square footage and is perfect for hosting family and friends or taking in the Arizona sunshine. Citrus trees, nice landscape, and no immediate neighbors behind provide back patio privacy and more areas to enjoy the Arizona weather. New AC in 2017 and APS owned solar panels keep your home cool and your energy bills low ($5 low)! Whether you're looking for your winter getaway or full time residence, this house has the bones and the opportunity for you to make it the home of your dreams!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Arizona room
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• EXTERIOR PAINT JOB
• CURB APPEAL
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ARIZONA ROOM
• BACK PATIO PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Sun City West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $345k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,225 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,812
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -19.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14428 W Horizon Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,625 (-1%)	1mo	$380,000	$234	77
22703 N Las Brizas Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,669 (+1%)	2mo	$399,000	$239	71
23220 N 145th Ave N	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,786 (+8%)	0mo	$495,000	$277	65
14320 W Rico Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	2mo	$401,000	$226	62
15173 W Via Manana --	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (-2%)	2mo	$345,000	$214	59
14642 W Soft Wind Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,639 (-0%)	1mo	$366,990	$224	56
22319 N Desperado Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,824 (+11%)	2mo	$325,000	$178	56
14602 W Via Montoya --	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,555 (-6%)	2mo	$348,500	$224	56
14658 W Soft Wind Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,639 (-0%)	2mo	$369,990	$226	56
15137 W Black Gold Ln	0.50mi	2/2.5	1,825 (+11%)	2mo	$500,000	$274	55
14204 W Wagon Wheel Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,808 (+10%)	2mo	$345,000	$191	46
14332 W Arzon Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,893 (+15%)	2mo	$365,000	$193	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-60,411
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-26,900
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $304,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-129	+0% $-226	+5% $-324	+10% $-422
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-321	+0% $-226	+5% $-132	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-139	base $-226	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14608 W Horizon Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1778	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	0.17mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,599	$1.19	23d	1	0.35mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	45d	1	0.35mi
15136 W Corral Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,100	$1.13	16d	1	0.47mi
14234 W Via Tercero Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1653	$2,500	$1.51	45d	1	0.48mi
15138 W Las Brizas Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1842	$2,895	$1.57	19d	1	0.48mi
22520 N Via de la Caballa Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,400	$2.36	18d	1	0.64mi
14113 W Robertson Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1410	$3,800	$2.70	45d	1	0.72mi
14668 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,995	$1.11	45d	1	0.72mi
21601 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1269	$2,695	$2.12	19d	1	0.77mi
15438 W Domingo Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	0d	1	1.07mi
13758 W Sola Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1351	$3,950	$2.92	0d	1	1.12mi
13755 W Nogales Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1660	$4,500	$2.71	45d	1	1.14mi
13714 W Caballero Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1794	$2,800	$1.56	0d	1	1.20mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	16d	1	1.30mi
13706 W Parada Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,600	$1.68	45d	1	1.37mi
14251 W Buckskin Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1793	$1,850	$1.03	5d	1	1.46mi
22212 N Cheyenne Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1669	$3,500	$2.10	21d	1	1.46mi
14377 W Hackamore Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,095	$1.23	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $345,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $345,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Come find your Sun City West diamond in the rough. New exterior paint job and excellent curb appeal welcome you into your split floor plan. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and walk-in closets. Large Arizona room adds to the total square footage and is perfect for hosting family and friends or taking in the Arizona sunshine. Citrus trees, nice landscape, and no immediate neighbors behind provide back patio privacy and more areas to enjoy the Arizona weather. New AC in 2017 and APS owned solar panels keep your home cool and your energy bills low ($5 low)! Whether you're looking for your winter getaway or full time residence, this house has the bones and the opportunity for you to make it the home of your dreams!

16. 2026-02-24
    listed $355,000 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Come find your Sun City West diamond in the rough. New exterior paint job and excellent curb appeal welcome you into your split floor plan. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and walk-in closets. Large Arizona room adds to the total square footage and is perfect for hosting family and friends or taking in the Arizona sunshine. Citrus trees, nice landscape, and no immediate neighbors behind provide back patio privacy and more areas to enjoy the Arizona weather. New AC in 2017 and APS owned solar panels keep your home cool and your energy bills low ($5 low)! Whether you're looking for your winter getaway or full time residence, this house has the bones and the opportunity for you to make it the home of your dreams!

17. 2003-04-09
    soldstatus $133,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HIGHLY DESIRABLE SPLIT BDRM FLOOR PLAN WITH A BONUS 380 SQFT L-SHAPED SUN ROOM,(OVER 1700 SQ FT OF ENCLOSED SPACE)* NICELY LANDSCAPED, FRONT & BACK, OVERSIZED LOT WITH CITRUS * SIDEWALKS & PATIOS COMPLETELY CIRCLE HOME * LARGE MASTER BATHROOM HAS LONG VANITY WITH TWIN SINKS * BOTH BDRMS HAVE BAY WINDOWS FOR MAXIMUM SPACE & WALK-IN CLOSETS * KITCHEN HAS WHITE WASH OAK CABINETS & REVERSE OSMOSIS WATER *

18. 2003-04-09
    soldstatus $133,000

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HIGHLY DESIRABLE SPLIT BDRM FLOOR PLAN WITH A BONUS 380 SQFT L-SHAPED SUN ROOM,(OVER 1700 SQ FT OF ENCLOSED SPACE)* NICELY LANDSCAPED, FRONT & BACK, OVERSIZED LOT WITH CITRUS * SIDEWALKS & PATIOS COMPLETELY CIRCLE HOME * LARGE MASTER BATHROOM HAS LONG VANITY WITH TWIN SINKS * BOTH BDRMS HAVE BAY WINDOWS FOR MAXIMUM SPACE & WALK-IN CLOSETS * KITCHEN HAS WHITE WASH OAK CABINETS & REVERSE OSMOSIS WATER *

19. 2003-03-24
    historical 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HIGHLY DESIRABLE SPLIT BDRM FLOOR PLAN WITH A BONUS 380 SQFT L-SHAPED SUN ROOM,(OVER 1700 SQ FT OF ENCLOSED SPACE)* NICELY LANDSCAPED, FRONT & BACK, OVERSIZED LOT WITH CITRUS * SIDEWALKS & PATIOS COMPLETELY CIRCLE HOME * LARGE MASTER BATHROOM HAS LONG VANITY WITH TWIN SINKS * BOTH BDRMS HAVE BAY WINDOWS FOR MAXIMUM SPACE & WALK-IN CLOSETS * KITCHEN HAS WHITE WASH OAK CABINETS & REVERSE OSMOSIS WATER *

20. 2003-01-01
    listed $139,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HIGHLY DESIRABLE SPLIT BDRM FLOOR PLAN WITH A BONUS 380 SQFT L-SHAPED SUN ROOM,(OVER 1700 SQ FT OF ENCLOSED SPACE)* NICELY LANDSCAPED, FRONT & BACK, OVERSIZED LOT WITH CITRUS * SIDEWALKS & PATIOS COMPLETELY CIRCLE HOME * LARGE MASTER BATHROOM HAS LONG VANITY WITH TWIN SINKS * BOTH BDRMS HAVE BAY WINDOWS FOR MAXIMUM SPACE & WALK-IN CLOSETS * KITCHEN HAS WHITE WASH OAK CABINETS & REVERSE OSMOSIS WATER *

21. 2002-12-31
    historical
22. 2002-10-15
    listed $143,000
23. 1994-11-14
    soldstatus $118,438

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$8,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+191.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $345,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $355,000 ARMLS
• 2003-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-09 Sold (MLS) $133,000 ARMLS
• 2003-03-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-01-01 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-10-15 Listed $143,000 ARMLS
• 1994-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $118,438 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.