Marfa Plan · Temple, TX 76502

$263,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Marfa Floor Plan - 3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Single-Story Home with Open Concept Living and Central KitchenThe Marfa floor plan by Omega Builders delivers the space and comfort families want in a smart, single-story design. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,604 square feet, this home offers an easy, functional layout with a warm, welcoming feel. A large open-concept living area anchors the home, featuring a centrally located kitchen that keeps everything connected. The kitchen includes a spacious island that doubles as a prep zone and gathering spot, along with a generously sized dining area that makes everyday meals and entertaining feel effortless. The primary suite is a private retreat, highlighted by a grand walk-in shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for kids, guests, or a home office, giving the layout room to grow with your lifestyle. Step outside to the open-air patio for fresh air and relaxed outdoor living, perfect for quiet mornings or casual evenings with friends. With its open flow, standout kitchen, and comfortable bedroom layout, the Marfa floor plan is a great fit for anyone looking for a stylish and practical home in Central Texas.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Open concept living
• Grand walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• CENTRAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING AREA
• GRAND WALK-IN SHOWER
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $263,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,982.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Temple — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1512 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,827 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,982
• List price: $263,900
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2042 Yarrelton Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-7%)	10mo	$265,000	$173	70
1621 Cedar River Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-3%)	8mo	$295,000	$184	63
3722 Oglala Trl	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+2%)	3mo	$304,500	$181	59
3512 Oglala Trl	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (+1%)	2mo	$259,000	$156	58
1518 Flatland Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-8%)	4mo	$284,000	$189	56
1522 Curlew Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-5%)	6mo	$270,000	$173	55
2501 Barnhardt Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (+8%)	3mo	$75,000	$42	55
3804 Oglala Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-10%)	4mo	$279,000	$189	50
1623 Fiddle Wood Way	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,771 (+8%)	3mo	$290,000	$164	49
1619 Flatland Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-15%)	7mo	$180,100	$129	47
1410 Flatland Trl	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,777 (+8%)	3mo	$310,000	$174	46
3714 Oglala	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,473 (-10%)	11mo	$279,200	$190	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-74,410
• Equity at exit: $40,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-117,907
• Equity at exit: $23,603

Cash invested: $76,435 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 74 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1512
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $216,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-198	-5% $-293	+0% $-387	+5% $-481	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-537	-5% $-462	+0% $-387	+5% $-312	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-317	base $-387	+0.5pp $-458	+1.0pp $-530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,246
• Closing costs: $8,189
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2037 Yarrelton Dr Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,195	$1.23	0d	1	0.13mi
2034 Zabcikville Dr Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1876	$1,980	$1.06	0d	1	0.15mi
4803 Bellfalls Ct Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1883	$1,995	$1.06	0d	1	0.27mi
1905 Westphalia Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,895	$1.14	0d	1	0.29mi
4926 Bellfalls Ct Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,900	$2.95	139d	1	0.36mi
3711 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	6d	1	0.52mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,550	$2.81	6d	1	0.53mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,950	$3.05	139d	1	0.53mi
1619 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	6d	1	0.54mi
1607 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,899	$1.24	139d	1	0.56mi
1503 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1830	$1,795	$0.98	119d	1	0.61mi
1423 Fiddle Wood Way Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,950	$1.04	139d	1	0.66mi
1614 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,795	$1.17	109d	1	0.66mi
1615 Black Kettle Trl Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$2,050	$1.15	6d	1	0.68mi
1423 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,875	$1.17	139d	1	0.70mi
1526 Black Kettle Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	139d	1	0.73mi
3050 Dade Loop Unit DADE3050 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,695	$1.12	3d	1	0.77mi
1907 Delano Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,700	$1.34	116d	1	0.77mi
1909 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,600	$0.99	119d	1	0.82mi
1905 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,595	$1.26	3d	1	0.82mi
2072 Dade Loop Unit DADE2072 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,535	$1.22	109d	1	0.84mi
2152 Meridian Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,700	$1.25	109d	1	0.93mi
1622 Lummus Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$1,600	$1.05	139d	1	0.94mi
1551 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	139d	1	0.97mi
1515 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	119d	1	1.03mi
108 McFaddan Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,795	$1.00	139d	1	1.20mi
1418 Eaton Dr Temple, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1529	$1,736	$1.14	0d	11	1.23mi
2509 Elk Creek St Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,825	$1.05	119d	1	1.23mi
216 Pullman Place Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,550	$1.29	6d	1	1.27mi
105 Pullman Place Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,600	$1.10	6d	1	1.36mi
208A Andy Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	139d	1	1.42mi
212A Andy Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	139d	1	1.44mi
2420 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,325	$0.99	119d	1	1.48mi
6506 Ambrose Cir Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	2150	$2,600	$1.21	139d	1	1.48mi
5106 Whistle Stop Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,050	$1.00	139d	1	1.49mi
5106 Whistle Stop Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,950	$0.96	0d	1	1.49mi
2416 Alterman Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,395	$1.06	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $263,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $263,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $263,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $263,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $263,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $263,900 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $263,900 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $263,900 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $263,900 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $263,900 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $263,900 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $263,900 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $263,900 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $263,900 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $263,900 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $263,900 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $263,900 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $263,900 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $263,900 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $263,900 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $263,900 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $263,900 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $263,900 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $263,900 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $263,900 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $263,900 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $263,900 Active 131 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $263,900 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 127 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,900 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,291
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$7,941
• Taxable loss: −$9,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Marfa floor plan is a well-maintained, single-story home with an open-concept design and modern finishes. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Travis Science Academy F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $263,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $259,900 Zillow