3836 Poker Flats Rd · Great Falls, MT 59405

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $103k · 27% under $800/mo HOA · 46% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful double-wide mobile home in a desirable park, The Highwoods. The photos tell you almost everything you need to know. Owners had the entire home sheetrocked except the bathrooms. Beautiful kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances. Large dining area, 3 large bedrooms, 2 baths; 1 has a large walk-in shower. Also, laundry room w/ washer & dryer. Large redwood deck covered for all your evening fun. 2 sheds and central air. Buyers need to be approved to live in the Highwoods.

Key facts

• Black out curtains
• Newer deck
• Large yard

Tags

• COVERED SPACIOUS PATIO
• BUILT-IN SOUND SYSTEM
• NEWER DECK
• LARGE YARD
• SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• BLACK OUT CURTAINS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax annual amount available
• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse, basketball court, barbecue and picnic area, RV/boat storage, and storage; Association management provided; Association fee $800 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Shared driveway; RV access/parking
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Foundation: see remarks
• Exterior features: Rear covered porch; Front porch; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating with forced air
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Accessible entrance; Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($548/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,912
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4206 Morningside Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	2mo	$109,000	$67	73
4141 Highwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	6mo	$85,000	$51	73
4116 Big Spur Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	24mo	$80,900	$54	72
600 41st St N	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	14mo	$249,900	$172	72
4106 Sourdough Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (-9%)	0mo	$60,000	$43	70
605 39a St N	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+11%)	12mo	$299,000	$176	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-7,609
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,872
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59405

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5120 Woodbird Ct Great Falls, MT	3.0	2.0	2016	$1,800	$0.89	44d	1	0.85mi
4613 7th Ave S Unit 2 Great Falls, MT	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	1	1.25mi
419 52nd St S Great Falls, MT	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,000	$1.12	44d	1	1.30mi
5404 3rd Ave S Great Falls, MT	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$80
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Falls H S
• NCES district ID: 3013050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,586
• Composite: 28.03/100
• National rank: #6846
• State rank: #79 of 116 in MT

Livability — Great Falls

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #2473

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Falls, MT
• County: Cascade County · 75,427 people
• City population: 75,427
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• Population (ZIP): 33,350
• Household income: $59,449
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1123.0

Population outlook (Cascade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,936 people
• By 2030: 81,376 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 79,435 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 77,906 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 78,595 · -4.1%
• By 2100: 79,997 · -2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cascade

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.3) · D 37.3% · R 59.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -22.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.3 2020: R+19.7 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+9.1 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.87%
• Current HPI: 213.0016
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $75,000 MRMLS
• 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2023-10-05 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2023-08-24 Listed $91,500 MRMLS
• 2023-08-01 Delisted — MRMLS
• 2023-07-26 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2023-07-17 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2023-06-16 Listed $91,500 MRMLS