1004 Blue Hawk Rd · Pawnee, OK 74058

$29,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1997 6,534 sqft lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid double wide fixer upper to be sold as is on 2 lots in Pawnee Ok. In flood zone but water has not been this high since the 1950s. Home will need new HVAC and condition of plumbing is unknown. Roof less than 5 years old. No flooring but sub floor seems solid. If you are looking for a lower dollar fixer upper this could be it. Home and garage currently contain flea market resale items that will be removed before closing.

Key facts

• New hvac
• 2 lots
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE FIXER UPPER
• 2 LOTS
• NEW HVAC
• ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD
• SUB FLOOR SEEMS SOLID

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Permanent foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features reported; Faces west

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric oven/range connections
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames; Laminate countertops; Electric oven/range connections; No hot water (reported)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pawnee (rural): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #176 of 270 in OK (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($204 loan paydown + $885 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.88%
• DSCR: 5.13
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $17,373
• Equity at exit: $13,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $43,219
• Equity at exit: $20,442

Cash invested: $8,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74058

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $29,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,375
• Closing costs: $885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,500 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,500 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,500 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,500 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,500 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,500 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $29,500 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,500 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $29,500 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,500 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,500 Active 167 DOM
12. 2025-12-15
    listed $29,500 Active
13. 2021-01-15
    historical
14. 2020-08-03
    historical
15. 2020-07-02
    listed $29,000
16. 2020-02-03
    listed $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $266 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$6/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,652
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$5,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$858
• Taxable income: $2,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$606
• After-tax cash flow: $1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawnee
• NCES district ID: 4023610
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,841
• Composite: 16.5/100
• National rank: #9184
• State rank: #176 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pawnee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #11883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 3,558

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,219 people
• By 2030: 16,028 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 15,724 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 15,563 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 15,905 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 16,058 · -1.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Native American 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 19.7% · R 78.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+40.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $29,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-01-15 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-08-03 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-07-02 Listed $29,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-02-03 Listed $34,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.