6931 Almeda Ave · New York, NY
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 96°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 77.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.3/15.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- Cash flow +8.3/30.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +2.2/10.0
- 1% rule +1.8/10.0
$579,999
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Beautiful single-family home in Far Rockaway featuring 3 levels of living space! Enjoy a spacious living room, formal dining room, and eat-in kitchen, along with 4 comfortable bedrooms and 2 full bathroom. This property includes a mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, bathroom, and private entrance—perfect for extended living. Private driveway and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near transportation, shopping, and more. .. ..
Key facts
- Mother-in-law suite
- Spacious backyard
- Private entrance
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Parking for 4 vehicles
- Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
- Home design: Single family residence
- Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
- Exterior features: Not waterfront; Private parking
Interior
- Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
- Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
- Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Formal dining room; Granite counters; Pantry; Storage
- Laundry & utility: Gas water heater
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $580k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-959 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (29.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (31.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $396k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,955/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $335k; list at $580k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.68% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.19%
- Cash-on-cash
- -3.94%
- DSCR
- 0.82
- GRM
- 12.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $665,028
- Comps found
- 4
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6924 Almeda Ave | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,999 (+13%) | 12mo | $600,000 | $300 | 61 |
| 627 Beach 65th St | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,530 (-13%) | 1mo | $577,000 | $377 | 60 |
| 439 Beach 69th St | 0.20mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,530 (-13%) | 6mo | $600,000 | $392 | 56 |
| 565 Beach 65th St | 0.26mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 2,008 (+14%) | 9mo | $670,000 | $334 | 50 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 19.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.57×
- Total profit
- $254,895
- Equity at exit
- $522,509
- IRR
- 17.8%
- Equity multiple
- 5.92×
- Total profit
- $798,879
- Equity at exit
- $1,126,810
Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City New York
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34
ZIP-level market 11692
- Home prices YoY
- 14.4%
- Active inventory
- 80
- Price-to-rent
- 12.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,955 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$3,042
- Tax from tax record
- −$374 /mo · $4,488/yr
- Insurance
- −$242
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$831
- Net cashflow
- $-959
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $145,000
- Closing costs
- $17,400
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6935 Hessler Ave Arverne, NY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1596 | $3,300 | $2.07 | 25d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 75-18 Aquatic Dr Unit B Arverne, NY | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2034 | $3,500 | $1.72 | 25d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 325 Beach 46th St Far Rockaway, NY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2250 | $3,100 | $1.38 | 25d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 1-76 Beach 97th St Unit 3 Rockaway Beach, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $4,000 | $2.67 | 8d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 2-27R Beach 99th St Rockaway Park, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2208 | $3,500 | $1.59 | 25d | 1 | 1.39mi |
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-05-20status Pending
-
2026-03-24$579,999 Active
-
2022-02-03soldstatus $334,562
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $4,488 · $374/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,145 · $595/mo
- Expected delta
- +$2,657/yr (+$221/mo · 59.2%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $47,461
- − Mortgage interest
- −$32,489
- − Property taxes
- −$4,488
- − Insurance
- −$8,018
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,797
- − Management
- −$3,797
- − Depreciation
- −$16,873
- Taxable loss
- −$22,000
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$5,280
- After-tax cash flow
- $-6,231/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
No district data.
Livability — New York
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #268
- US rank
- #4188
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New York, NY
- County
- Queens County · 1,914,869 people
- City population
- 7,731,280
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,734
- Household income
- $49,720
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1734.0
Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,546,320 people
- By 2030
- 2,643,059 · +3.8%
- By 2040
- 2,815,563 · +10.6%
- By 2050
- 2,944,423 · +15.6%
- By 2075
- 3,123,338 · +22.7%
- By 2100
- 3,098,688 · +21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% White 13% Asian 6%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 31% · Canada, China, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 67% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Queens
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 44.49%
- Current HPI
- 354.2007
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
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| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
|
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Price history
+73.4% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-24 Listed $579,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $334,562 Public Records
Property tax history
+5.5%/yrLatest (2025): $4,488 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…