406 15th Ave · Longview, WA 98632

$198,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1935 5,998 sqft lot $129/sqft · 24% below area Est $319k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great layout with solid bones-- an investors dream! This home was a stunner in its time with large living spaces, high ceilings, huge windows, adorable dining area and more. The primary bedroom is on the main floor with attached half bath, and the other two bedrooms boast large square footage and walk in closets. The unfinished basement and detached garage add additional storage. To make this home even sweeter, in the fenced backyard you'll find fruit producing apple and plum trees. New electrical panel. Appraised for $220,000.

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1935

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior property tax exemption available
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered space); Driveway and off-street parking
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electric and oil energy sources; Power by Cowlitz PUD
• Home design: Single-family detached house; Two stories; Main-level entry
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Wood exterior products; Corner lot with paved surfaces and sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (2 upper, 1 main)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; One bathtub and one shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Dining room; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Unfinished basement (utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#228 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Longview School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #185 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kessler Elementary School (289 students, 85% FRL); Mark Morris High School (914 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $178,481 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,483
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -31.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 15th Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$245,000	$170	72
567 20th Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-0%)	9mo	$380,000	$248	70
567 Oregon Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-6%)	7mo	$332,500	$230	69
159 16th Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (-9%)	0mo	$166,500	$120	64
447 22nd Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-6%)	4mo	$379,900	$263	64
520 24th Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	2mo	$421,200	$269	64
467 22nd Ave	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,512 (-2%)	9mo	$349,000	$231	62
421 24th Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,464 (-5%)	4mo	$356,500	$244	61
467 19th Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,347 (-12%)	6mo	$350,000	$260	61
537 26th Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-3%)	6mo	$390,500	$263	55
656 22nd Ave	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,640 (+7%)	8mo	$392,000	$239	48
516 26th Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+7%)	9mo	$415,000	$252	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,137
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,701
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98632

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$248 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,732

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 25th Ave Unit 201 Longview, WA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	11d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $198,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $220,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Great layout with solid bones-- an investors dream! This home was a stunner in its time with large living spaces, high ceilings, huge windows, adorable dining area and more. The primary bedroom is on the main floor with attached half bath, and the other two bedrooms boast large square footage and walk in closets. The unfinished basement and detached garage add additional storage. To make this home even sweeter, in the fenced backyard you'll find fruit producing apple and plum trees. New electrical panel. Appraised for $220,000.

19. 2026-05-07
    listed $220,000 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Great layout with solid bones-- an investors dream! This home was a stunner in its time with large living spaces, high ceilings, huge windows, adorable dining area and more. The primary bedroom is on the main floor with attached half bath, and the other two bedrooms boast large square footage and walk in closets. The unfinished basement and detached garage add additional storage. To make this home even sweeter, in the fenced backyard you'll find fruit producing apple and plum trees. New electrical panel. Appraised for $220,000.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$677
• After-tax cash flow: $1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longview School District
• NCES district ID: 5304470
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,324
• Composite: 40.41/100
• National rank: #7732
• State rank: #185 of 291 in WA

Livability — Longview

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #6972

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longview, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• City population: 50,635
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,635
• Household income: $66,305
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2224.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -479.09%
• Current HPI: 230.8501
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $220,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $240 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.