Carrington Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$304,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stylish twin villa home in Legacy Preserve features an open-concept design that makes gathering with friends and family a breeze. The well-appointed kitchen features an ample counter space including a breakfast bar for eating. The kitchen seamlessly flows to the dining and living areas. Sliding glass doors open from the living room to the covered lanai extending the living space outdoors and provides the perfect place for relaxing or dining al fresco. An expansive primary bedroom, situated at the back of the home for privacy, includes an en-suite bathroom with double vanity and walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• En suite bathroom
• Double vanity

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED LANAI
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,441.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $268,059 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,441
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -19.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1611 Love Grass Ter	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	0mo	$308,000	$197	92
1607 Love Grass Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	0mo	$302,000	$193	92
1618 Love Grass Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	0mo	$295,745	$189	91
1614 Love Grass Ter	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	0mo	$297,000	$190	91
1630 Love Grass Ter	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	2mo	$298,660	$191	91
1604 Indian Grass Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,564 (0%)	1mo	$307,990	$197	88
1906 Hammock Trace Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-4%)	0mo	$319,000	$212	80
1911 Hammock Trace Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-4%)	3mo	$324,000	$215	79
1823 Vandalia Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	1mo	$337,000	$202	74
1811 Vandalia Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	1mo	$343,000	$205	73
1831 Vandalia Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	2mo	$335,560	$201	73
1526 Westover Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+12%)	2mo	$450,000	$258	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-98,426
• Equity at exit: $55,830

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-154,449
• Equity at exit: $32,375

Cash invested: $104,843 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 74 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.8 mo (36%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,995 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 147 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,964
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,617/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,276

Max offer price $306,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-211	-5% $-341	+0% $-470	+5% $-599	+10% $-729
Rent	-10% $-682	-5% $-576	+0% $-470	+5% $-364	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-281	-0.5pp $-375	base $-470	+0.5pp $-567	+1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,610
• Closing costs: $11,233
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	98d	1	0.23mi
1439 Orchardgrass Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,295	$1.26	9d	1	0.47mi
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	119d	1	0.89mi
16465 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,400	$1.17	9d	1	0.92mi
16540 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1977	$2,505	$1.27	9d	1	1.25mi
923 Hagle Park Rd Unit 925 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	93d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $292,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Carrington)New construction - Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1564

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Carrington)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $299,990 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $299,990 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $299,990 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $297,990 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $297,990 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $297,990 Active 201 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $297,990 Active 200 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $297,990 Active 199 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $297,990 Active 198 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $297,990 Active 197 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $297,990 Active 196 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $297,990 Active 195 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $297,990 Active 194 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $297,990 Active 193 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $297,990 Active 192 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $297,990 Active 191 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $297,990 Active 190 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $297,990 Active 189 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $297,990 Active 188 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $297,990 Active 187 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $297,990 Active 186 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $297,990 Active 185 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $297,990 Active 184 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $297,990 Active 183 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $297,990 Active 182 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $297,990 Active 181 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $297,990 Active 180 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $297,990 Active 179 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $297,990 Active 178 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $297,990 Active 177 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $297,990 Active 176 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $297,990 Active 172 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $297,990 Active 170 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $297,990 Active 169 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $297,990 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $297,990 Active 164 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $297,990 Active 163 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $297,990 Active 162 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $297,990 Active 159 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,617
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,573
• − Management: −$2,573
• − Depreciation: −$10,893
• Taxable loss: −$12,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,961
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This stylish twin villa home in Legacy Preserve is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $292,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Carrington)New construction - Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1564

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Carrington)