415 E Dean St, Unit 44b, Week 5 · Aspen, CO 81611

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo · 346 Days on market

Built 2005 $80/sqft · 22% below area Est $127k · 22% under $341/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. Large one bedroom split level condominium located on second and third floors with fireplace, kitchen and living room with sofa sleeper. Enjoy winter week 5 every year together with additional float time. 2027 dates - Fixed Week: Sat, Jan 30 to Sat, Feb. 6. Float Week Sat, Oct 9 to Sat, Oct 16. . 1/20th interest - includes 1 fixed week, 1 float week every year and 1 float week every other year.

Key facts

• Ski shop
• Heated outdoor pool
• 2024 renovations

Tags

• 2024 RENOVATIONS
• HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• 2 HOT TUBS
• FIRE PIT
• SKI SHOP
• E-BIKES FOR OWNERS USE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($48k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,476/mo this rent would consume 94% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 177.10%
• DSCR: 8.88
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,326
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -22.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.46×
• Total profit: $345,509
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 33.50×
• Total profit: $900,813
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,360
• Net cashflow: $4,036

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,104	-5% $4,070	+0% $4,036	+5% $4,001	+10% $3,967
Rent	-10% $3,524	-5% $3,780	+0% $4,036	+5% $4,291	+10% $4,547
Rate	-1.0pp $4,085	-0.5pp $4,061	base $4,036	+0.5pp $4,010	+1.0pp $3,984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $341 · $4,092/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 336 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 334 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 326 DOM
16. 2025-07-07
    listed $99,000 Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. Large one bedroom split level condominium located on second and third floors with fireplace, kitchen and living room with sofa sleeper. Enjoy winter week 5 every year together with additional float time. 2027 dates - Fixed Week: Sat, Jan 30 to Sat, Feb. 6. Float Week Sat, Oct 9 to Sat, Oct 16. . 1/20th interest - includes 1 fixed week, 1 float week every year and 1 float week every other year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$1,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,217
• − Management: −$6,217
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $50,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,028
• After-tax cash flow: $36,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-07 Listed $99,000 AGMLS