4937 Stuart Rd · Denton, TX 76207

$95,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and well-maintained 2021 manufactured home offering 1,216 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms located in the Southfork-Denton community in north Denton. The open-concept living area flows into a modern kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances (refrigerator less than one year old with ice maker, oven, and dishwasher), a touch-free vent hood with remote, and a large center island with plenty of prep space and seating. A Wi-Fi-enabled programmable smart thermostat helps reduce heating and cooling costs. Interior upgrades include a sliding barn door with modern hardware, rain shower heads with handheld wands in both bathrooms, and a thermostat-controlled floor vent fan booster in the second bedroom for faster heating and cooling. Additional features include central HVAC, keyless front door entry, Ring doorbell, washer and dryer hookups, and a large deck for outdoor relaxation. Financing may be available through manufactured home lenders, making ownership possible for many buyers who may not qualify for traditional home loans. Manufactured home only - land not included. Buyer must obtain park approval. Current lot rent approximately $800 per month.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Touch-free vent hood
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TOUCH-FREE VENT HOOD
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WI-FI-ENABLED THERMOSTAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $660 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.62%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $29,536
• Equity at exit: $14,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $69,336
• Equity at exit: $8,257

Cash invested: $26,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76207

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,925 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $95,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,875
• Closing costs: $2,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4937 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1176	$1,849	$1.57	21d	1	0.02mi
1215 Rustic View Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,050	$1.42	44d	1	0.15mi
4108 Selene Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$1,730	$1.62	21d	1	0.71mi
629 Apollo Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1016	$1,800	$1.77	44d	1	0.75mi
2951 Picadilly Ln Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,895	$1.75	1d	27	0.86mi
3825 Camelot St Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	13d	1	0.92mi
3825 Camelot St Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	0.92mi
3817 Yellowstone Pl Unit ADU Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	44d	1	0.96mi
3812 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	2.0	1.5	1098	$1,350	$1.23	25d	1	0.98mi
1250 Randall St Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,446	$2.71	1d	71	0.99mi
3815 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	689	$1,175	$1.70	3d	3	1.00mi
3815 Stuart Rd Unit 2BR2BATH Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	837	$1,325	$1.58	44d	1	1.00mi
3805 Atlas Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,795	$1.29	25d	1	1.01mi
401 Ame Dr Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,528	$1.80	2d	41	1.08mi
2731 E Sherman Dr Unit 2102 Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,399	$1.39	5d	1	1.08mi
713 Sun Valley Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,250	$1.91	25d	1	1.09mi
1255 Poinsettia Blvd Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,930	$1.97	5d	8	1.19mi
3501 Valley View Rd Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1078	$1,795	$1.67	44d	1	1.20mi
3909 N Loop 288 Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,633	$2.81	1d	28	1.27mi
217 Tanglewood St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,975	$1.53	2d	1	1.28mi
808 Laguna Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.0	910	$1,565	$1.72	3d	1	1.40mi
3919 Canton Ct Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,195	$1.48	44d	1	1.41mi
929 Sierra Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	958	$2,050	$2.14	44d	1	1.44mi
1605 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,900	$1.35	44d	1	1.45mi
3701 Northpointe Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,995	$1.45	19d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $95,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $99,999 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-04-29
   price $99,999 1193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

   Move-in ready and well-maintained 2021 manufactured home offering 1,216 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms located in the Southfork-Denton community in north Denton. The open-concept living area flows into a modern kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances (refrigerator less than one year old with ice maker, oven, and dishwasher), a touch-free vent hood with remote, and a large center island with plenty of prep space and seating. A Wi-Fi-enabled programmable smart thermostat helps reduce heating and cooling costs. Interior upgrades include a sliding barn door with modern hardware, rain shower heads with handheld wands in both bathrooms, and a thermostat-controlled floor vent fan booster in the second bedroom for faster heating and cooling. Additional features include central HVAC, keyless front door entry, Ring doorbell, washer and dryer hookups, and a large deck for outdoor relaxation. Financing may be available through manufactured home lenders, making ownership possible for many buyers who may not qualify for traditional home loans. Manufactured home only - land not included. Buyer must obtain park approval. Current lot rent approximately $800 per month.

9. 2026-04-06
   price $105,000 1193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

   Move-in ready and well-maintained 2021 manufactured home offering 1,216 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms located in the Southfork-Denton community in north Denton. The open-concept living area flows into a modern kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances (refrigerator less than one year old with ice maker, oven, and dishwasher), a touch-free vent hood with remote, and a large center island with plenty of prep space and seating. A Wi-Fi-enabled programmable smart thermostat helps reduce heating and cooling costs. Interior upgrades include a sliding barn door with modern hardware, rain shower heads with handheld wands in both bathrooms, and a thermostat-controlled floor vent fan booster in the second bedroom for faster heating and cooling. Additional features include central HVAC, keyless front door entry, Ring doorbell, washer and dryer hookups, and a large deck for outdoor relaxation. Financing may be available through manufactured home lenders, making ownership possible for many buyers who may not qualify for traditional home loans. Manufactured home only - land not included. Buyer must obtain park approval. Current lot rent approximately $800 per month.

10. 2026-02-23
    listed $110,000 Active 1193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

    Move-in ready and well-maintained 2021 manufactured home offering 1,216 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms located in the Southfork-Denton community in north Denton. The open-concept living area flows into a modern kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances (refrigerator less than one year old with ice maker, oven, and dishwasher), a touch-free vent hood with remote, and a large center island with plenty of prep space and seating. A Wi-Fi-enabled programmable smart thermostat helps reduce heating and cooling costs. Interior upgrades include a sliding barn door with modern hardware, rain shower heads with handheld wands in both bathrooms, and a thermostat-controlled floor vent fan booster in the second bedroom for faster heating and cooling. Additional features include central HVAC, keyless front door entry, Ring doorbell, washer and dryer hookups, and a large deck for outdoor relaxation. Financing may be available through manufactured home lenders, making ownership possible for many buyers who may not qualify for traditional home loans. Manufactured home only - land not included. Buyer must obtain park approval. Current lot rent approximately $800 per month.

11. 2024-02-03
    price $58,000
12. 2024-02-03
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,349
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$2,778
• Taxable income: $8,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,056
• After-tax cash flow: $7,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,862
• Household income: $85,330
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.77%
• Current HPI: 220.3314
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.53%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $58,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-03 Listed $50,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $179 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.