509C Tiffany Ln · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$218,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot Est $282k · 23% under $423/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO THE LEISURE LIFESTYLE WHERE ACTIVITIES GALORE ARE JUST OUTSIDE YOUR DOOR! SEEKING A GREAT LOCATION? THIS ONE IS IT! FEATURING A SIDE ENTRANCE FOR YOUR GUESTS & DIRECT GARAGE ENTRANCE W/ ACCESS TO THE FENCED IN PATIO FOR YOU. A PERFECT SETUP IF YOU HAVE PETS. A COMFORTABLE FLOOR PLAN OFFERING DEN, WHICH COULD BE USED AS A 3RD BEDROOM IS GREAT FOR LIVING & ENTERTAINING. THE KITCHEN HAS A SLIDER w/ DIRECT ACCESS TO FENCED PATIO. YOUR PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE IS HUGE, AND OFFERS AMPLE CLOSET & STORAGE SPACE. A LOVED HOME READY FOR THE NEW TOUCHES THAT IT'S NEXT OWNER CAN PROVIDE. MINUTES TO ENDLESS SHOPPING INCLUDING SHOPRITE & LOWES. NUMEROUS RESTAURANTS ARE JU

Key facts

• Side entrance
• Ample closet
• Den

Tags

• SIDE ENTRANCE
• DIRECT GARAGE ENTRANCE
• FENCED IN PATIO
• DEN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO FENCED PATIO
• AMPLE CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Leisure West association; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include exercise room, community room, pool, swimming, golf course, clubhouse, common area, jogging path, landscaping, bocci; HOA covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Model: Blair
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography; Property is attached

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Light fixtures; Screens; Support rails
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on the first level; Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $218k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
647C Dunstable Ct Unit C	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$204	77
949A Liverpool Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,381 (0%)	2mo	$295,000	$214	76
21A Buckingham Dr N	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,381 (0%)	0mo	$385,000	$279	76
10 Saint Paul Pl	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+3%)	1mo	$292,500	$205	70
29A Gramercy Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,486 (+8%)	1mo	$232,000	$156	69
655-A Pulham Ct	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	69
826B Liverpool Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	1mo	$279,000	$190	66
15 Frilham Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,427 (+3%)	2mo	$230,000	$161	65
833 Westminster Ct Unit C	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	2mo	$285,000	$194	63
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	0mo	$248,500	$200	63
5 Elmswell Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,465 (+6%)	2mo	$385,000	$263	60
15 Normanton Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,267 (-8%)	0mo	$330,000	$260	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,180
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,200
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$423
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	2d	1	0.75mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	0.76mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.86mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.91mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	43d	1	0.92mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	1.09mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.17mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	43d	1	1.22mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	43d	1	1.26mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	1.39mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	1d	1	1.47mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $423 · $5,076/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 683-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $218,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − HOA: −$5,076
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable income: $1,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $4,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a well-maintained lawn and landscaping. The home is ready for a new owner to make some cosmetic updates and improvements to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — The paint on the exterior and interior walls appears to be in good condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior and interior walls — Painting the exterior and interior walls can improve the curb appeal and the overall appearance of the home, which can increase its resale and rental value.
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, which can increase its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · The paint on the exterior and interior walls appears to be in good condition.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior and interior walls — Painting the exterior and interior walls can improve the curb appeal and the overall appearance of the home, which can increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, which can increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $218,000 MOMLS