5026 Water Oak Dr #208 · South Bradenton, FL 34207

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 $525/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent ownership and/or investment opportunity This beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath move in ready unit features a host of upgrades which include new A/C, new refrigerator, new flooring to name a few. This Lakeview Condo is ideally located within easy access to shopping, entertainment, and beaches. This will not last long!

Key facts

• Partially furnished
• Lake views
• Private balcony

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• PARTIALLY FURNISHED
• WALK TO NEARBY SHOPPING
• SHORT DRIVE TO GULF BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees $6,300; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee $525 (includes cable TV, pool, insurance, building and grounds maintenance); Community pool; Pets allowed (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Condominium; 2 total stories; Unit on 2nd floor; Faces west
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H. S. Moody Elementary School (math 39% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 606 students, 73% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $119k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,045
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,245
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $743/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5026 Water Oak Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	23d	1	0.02mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	15d	1	0.04mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	15d	1	0.09mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	21d	1	0.15mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	0.16mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	23d	1	0.20mi
3278 51st Avenue Dr W Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	0.25mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	11d	1	0.26mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	11d	1	0.26mi
3277 51st Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,760	$1.77	3d	1	0.27mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	23d	1	0.28mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	2d	1	0.38mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	3d	4	0.39mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	11d	5	0.39mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	19d	5	0.39mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	23d	1	0.41mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	23d	1	0.43mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	15d	1	0.46mi
184 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,100	$2.23	23d	1	0.50mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	15d	1	0.50mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	23d	1	0.56mi
3401 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1293	$3,300	$2.55	3d	3	0.63mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	1d	10	0.63mi
3506 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,800	$2.94	3d	2	0.68mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	1d	14	0.69mi
3605 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$3,738	$3.21	3d	2	0.69mi
3604 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,050	$3.64	3d	3	0.70mi
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	23d	1	0.76mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,550	$2.58	1d	1	0.89mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 0314 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,967	$1.84	23d	1	0.89mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,412	$2.68	21d	10	0.89mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 1210 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,932	$1.80	3d	1	0.89mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	23d	1	0.95mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	23d	1	0.95mi
3848 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	23d	1	0.97mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	23d	1	0.99mi
3851 59th Ave W Unit 3851 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	23d	1	0.99mi
3843 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.99mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	1.01mi
3774 59th Ave W Unit 3774 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,350	$1.48	23d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $119,000
16. 2026-05-06
    price $123,000
17. 2026-04-30
    price $127,000
18. 2026-04-23
    price $131,000
19. 2026-04-15
    price $135,000
20. 2026-04-08
    price $139,000
21. 2026-03-21
    listed $159,000 Active
22. 2026-02-28
    historical $1,800
23. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,800
24. 2024-12-13
    historical $1,799
25. 2024-10-06
    price $1,799
26. 2024-09-21
    listed $1,800
27. 2020-01-23
    soldstatus $68,000 Sold 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Excellent ownership and/or investment opportunity This beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath move in ready unit features a host of upgrades which include new A/C, new refrigerator, new flooring to name a few. This Lakeview Condo is ideally located within easy access to shopping, entertainment, and beaches. This will not last long!

28. 2020-01-21
    soldstatus $68,000
29. 2019-11-14
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Excellent ownership and/or investment opportunity This beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath move in ready unit features a host of upgrades which include new A/C, new refrigerator, new flooring to name a few. This Lakeview Condo is ideally located within easy access to shopping, entertainment, and beaches. This will not last long!

30. 2019-11-11
    listed $69,900 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Excellent ownership and/or investment opportunity This beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath move in ready unit features a host of upgrades which include new A/C, new refrigerator, new flooring to name a few. This Lakeview Condo is ideally located within easy access to shopping, entertainment, and beaches. This will not last long!

31. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $100
32. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus $88,000
33. 1999-07-22
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $743 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$743
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$343
• After-tax cash flow: $2,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+205.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $123,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $131,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Rental Removed $1,800 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,800 TENANTTURNER2
• 2024-12-13 Rental Removed $1,799 STELLARMLS
• 2024-10-06 Price Changed $1,799 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2020-01-23 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-11 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $743 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.