55 Birch Ln · Columbia, PA 17512

$81,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2016 $60/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2016
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.0% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#538 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, schools D-.
• Manheim Central SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #242 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,785 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.90%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,790
• List price: $81,000
• Delta: -71.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $30,139
• Equity at exit: $12,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $101,171
• Equity at exit: $7,003

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17512

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,181/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $89,900 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Active 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-05-02
   price $99,900 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-04-22
   listed $114,900 Active 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

6. 2026-04-14
   historical $114,900 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Welcome to 55 Birch Ln— Priced to sell! This is a well-designed double wide home that offers comfortable living with a functional layout perfect for everyday life. This home features a spacious interior with a seamless flow between the main living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy a generously sized living room that opens into the kitchen and dining area, creating a warm and connected space for family gatherings. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep both easy and efficient. The home includes nicely sized bedrooms, including a primary suite that provides a private retreat with its own bathroom. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, you’ll find space perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting friends and family. With its thoughtful layout and comfortable design, this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for affordable, easy living. Don’t miss your chance to make 55 Birch Ln your next home—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,181 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$1,181
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $6,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $5,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manheim Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4214550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,723
• Composite: 40.02/100
• National rank: #3825
• State rank: #242 of 539 in PA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #5040

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 18,148
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,148
• Household income: $66,684
• Rent vs Own: 35.0% rent · 65.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 647.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.48%
• Current HPI: 278.1465
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.00%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $114,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,181 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.