12818 Shaily Faith Ct · Barrett, TX 77532

$216,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $254k · 14% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Kitson Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $229,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (includes 2 garage spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Kitson plan; Active listing
• Exterior features: Property located at 12818 Shaily Faith Ct, Crosby, TX 77532

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Kitson plan); Living area approximately 1,409

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-455/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,352 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11634 Heritage Wind Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-2%)	3mo	$239,900	$173	88
13002 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	1mo	$252,990	$180	85
12907 Dianna Lee Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$254,990	$181	85
12926 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$253,990	$180	85
12910 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$257,990	$182	84
12939 Dianna Lee Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$252,990	$178	84
12943 Dianna Lee Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-6%)	1mo	$239,990	$181	76
1222 Bonnerjee Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+11%)	1mo	$283,990	$182	73
1523 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,570 (+11%)	3mo	$253,900	$162	58
13003 Dianna Lee Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	1mo	$261,990	$163	57
12915 Dianna Lee Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$261,990	$163	56
12938 Dianna Lee Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$267,990	$167	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,398
• Equity at exit: $32,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-49,517
• Equity at exit: $18,761

Cash invested: $60,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$271 /mo · $3,255/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $211,507

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $37	+0% $-38	+5% $-113	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-113	+0% $-38	+5% $38	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $17	base $-38	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,248
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 638-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $216,990 Pending 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $216,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 599-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $229,990 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 419-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    listed $229,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$3,255
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,312
• Taxable loss: −$4,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from some exterior painting and flooring updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves the overall aesthetic and increases both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves the overall aesthetic and increases both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B