4002 Post St · Triangle, VA 22172

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1945 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Residential duplex. 2 units with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath in each unit. Washer dryer hookup in basement. Sold "as is" . Both units are vacant. Site is zone commercial and use is a legal non-confirming use and application is required by the county to continue use. There are 2 tax parcels totaling 0.2755 acres (12,000 SF). 18624 Old Triangle Road (gpin 8188-64-7110) is part of this sale and assessed at $0. Other tax parcel is GPIN 8188-64-7004 with address of 4002 Post Street.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $247/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Triangle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#156 in VA, #4,926 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $280k implies a 409% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.55%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,986
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $28,125
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22172

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,570/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,277

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $652	-5% $573	+0% $493	+5% $414	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $379	+0% $493	+5% $608	+10% $723
Rate	-1.0pp $634	-0.5pp $565	base $493	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $347

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,902
Total (2 units)			$2,902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18374 Reaper Hill Ct Triangle, VA	3.0	2.5	1430	$2,950	$2.06	10d	1	0.42mi
4410 Potomac Highlands Cir Triangle, VA	3.0	3.5	1801	$2,850	$1.58	44d	1	0.77mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,903	$2.11	44d	1	1.04mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,567	$1.96	2d	1	1.04mi
2902 Buell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	5d	1	1.11mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	15d	1	1.13mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	44d	1	1.13mi
17950 Curtis Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,715	$2.16	3d	1	1.16mi
18413 Cedar Dr Triangle, VA	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	15d	1	1.17mi
2325 McClellan Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,207	$1.65	24d	1	1.19mi
1846 Fort Pulaski Ct Dumfries, VA	1.0	1.0	1320	$700	$0.53	15d	1	1.19mi
19330 Belleau Wood Dr Triangle, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,800	$2.04	3d	12	1.20mi
1810 Fort Pulaski Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	13d	1	1.21mi
17813 Willow Rd Dumfries, VA	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	24d	1	1.30mi
3629 McDowell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    status Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Residential duplex. 2 units with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath in each unit. Washer dryer hookup in basement. Sold "as is" . Both units are vacant. Site is zone commercial and use is a legal non-confirming use and application is required by the county to continue use. There are 2 tax parcels totaling 0.2755 acres (12,000 SF). 18624 Old Triangle Road (gpin 8188-64-7110) is part of this sale and assessed at $0. Other tax parcel is GPIN 8188-64-7004 with address of 4002 Post Street.

15. 2026-04-10
    historical Active Under Contract 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Residential duplex. 2 units with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath in each unit. Washer dryer hookup in basement. Sold "as is" . Both units are vacant. Site is zone commercial and use is a legal non-confirming use and application is required by the county to continue use. There are 2 tax parcels totaling 0.2755 acres (12,000 SF). 18624 Old Triangle Road (gpin 8188-64-7110) is part of this sale and assessed at $0. Other tax parcel is GPIN 8188-64-7004 with address of 4002 Post Street.

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $300,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Residential duplex. 2 units with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath in each unit. Washer dryer hookup in basement. Sold "as is" . Both units are vacant. Site is zone commercial and use is a legal non-confirming use and application is required by the county to continue use. There are 2 tax parcels totaling 0.2755 acres (12,000 SF). 18624 Old Triangle Road (gpin 8188-64-7110) is part of this sale and assessed at $0. Other tax parcel is GPIN 8188-64-7004 with address of 4002 Post Street.

17. 2001-06-22
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 1996-07-30
    historical
19. 1996-05-17
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,570
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $1,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$349
• After-tax cash flow: $5,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Triangle

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #4926

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Triangle, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 11,490
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 11,490
• Household income: $109,956
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 364.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 22% White 21% Two or more races 14% Asian 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Romanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.31%
• Current HPI: 278.5511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+445.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-05-17 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,570 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.