2021 Lacey St · Cape Girardeau, MO 63701

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,361 sqft lot Est $146k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,361 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,121 (per appraiser); Lot size approximately 0.169 acre; No home warranty
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (faces front); Additional covered parking; Concrete driveway; Garage space for 1 vehicle (garage ~11.4 x 25.1)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity and natural gas connected; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Corner, level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 55 x 134

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Gas range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; No fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.9% in Cape Girardeau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#297 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cape Girardeau 63 (urban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #188 of 324 in MO (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central High (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #234 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,341 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Cape Girardeau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cape Girardeau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,690 (0.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,665
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1620 Luce St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,065 (-1%)	10mo	$170,000	$160	70
1548 Whitener St	0.54mi	2/1.0	996 (-8%)	2mo	$139,900	$140	61
2004 Dunklin St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-5%)	1mo	$92,000	$90	60
1727 Whitener St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,175 (+9%)	1mo	$235,000	$200	59
1536 Whitener St	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-7%)	1mo	$109,900	$109	58
701 Penny Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	982 (-9%)	7mo	$132,500	$135	58
1716 Themis St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,171 (+8%)	5mo	$280,000	$239	57
1721 New Madrid St	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,022 (-5%)	2mo	$150,000	$147	56
1958 Dunklin St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,215 (+13%)	1mo	$153,500	$126	56
313 S Spring St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	3mo	$150,000	$134	53
1522 Independence St	0.61mi	2/1.0	967 (-10%)	3mo	$79,900	$83	52
1619 Bessie St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,210 (+12%)	5mo	$149,900	$124	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,381
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,228
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63701

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $923

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $250	+0% $216	+5% $182	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $169	+0% $216	+5% $264	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $247	base $216	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2838 Independence St Cape Girardeau, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 94.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $2,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cape Girardeau 63
• NCES district ID: 2907120
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,543
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5974
• State rank: #188 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cape Girardeau

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #13759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Girardeau, MO
• County: Cape Girardeau County · 75,175 people
• City population: 47,546
• Metro: Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 39,345
• Household income: $66,654
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Cape Girardeau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,807 people
• By 2030: 88,016 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 93,914 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 99,541 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 114,527 · +35.0%
• By 2100: 121,718 · +43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape Girardeau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.5) · D 26.2% · R 72.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -46.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.5 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.04%
• Current HPI: 156.0433
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $599 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.