5126 Storey Ave · Midland, TX 79703

$242,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1979 7,667 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sooo Cute!!! 3 bedroom, 2 bath charmer. Enter into a light & bright home w/ wood-look laminate flooring. Flexible separate formal dining could also serve as office, play area or 2nd living space & flows directly to the kitchen & breakfast area. Breakfast nook overlooks large outdoor covered patio & great backyard including large storage shed. Spacious living area w/ wood burning brick fireplace is great for cozy evenings. Large primary bedroom suite w/ space for desk area or sitting area & great walk-in closet. Welcoming guest bedrooms & bath. Recent HVAC system. 2-car front entry garage

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Great walk in closet
• Large storage shed

Tags

• WOOD LOOK LAMINATE FLOORING
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LARGE OUTDOOR COVERED PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• WOOD BURNING BRICK FIREPLACE
• GREAT WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $2,516.55 annual property tax

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.176-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Disposal
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room wood-burning fireplace; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 448 students, 69% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,562 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-35,489
• Equity at exit: $36,158

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,101
• Equity at exit: $20,967

Cash invested: $67,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,038/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $242,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $233	+0% $164	+5% $95	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $74	+0% $164	+5% $253	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $226	base $164	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,625
• Closing costs: $7,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5202 Ric Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,975	$1.57	23d	1	0.20mi
303 Koufax Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,950	$1.41	23d	1	0.61mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	23d	1	0.64mi
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	46d	1	0.66mi
5205 Blue Haven Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$6,000	$3.90	46d	1	0.71mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	23d	1	0.73mi
704 Nolan Ryan Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	46d	1	0.73mi
4732 Harvard Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2248	$2,600	$1.16	23d	1	0.75mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	16d	1	0.75mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	46d	1	0.77mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	23d	1	0.78mi
805 Nolan Ryan Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,450	$1.50	23d	1	0.79mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	23d	1	0.80mi
509 Wagner Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$3,000	$1.44	46d	1	0.81mi
5919 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,600	$1.48	23d	1	0.81mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	47d	1	0.82mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	46d	1	0.85mi
909 Beal Pkwy Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.89mi
6011 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,550	$1.45	46d	1	0.91mi
6020 Spahn St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,800	$1.51	46d	1	0.93mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	46d	1	0.93mi
5801 Deauville Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,247	$2.46	16d	22	0.94mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	23d	1	0.95mi
6102 Mile High Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,500	$1.42	46d	1	0.96mi
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	23d	1	0.97mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	46d	1	1.05mi
1008 Rangers Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	16d	1	1.12mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	16d	8	1.13mi
711 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,400	$1.59	46d	1	1.15mi
711 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,400	$1.59	23d	1	1.15mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,590	$2.32	46d	5	1.20mi
907 Candlestick Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,500	$1.46	16d	1	1.20mi
6406 Hall of Fame Blvd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,850	$1.66	16d	1	1.21mi
5313 Freedom Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$2,550	$1.42	23d	1	1.29mi
619 Victory Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$3,200	$1.75	16d	1	1.31mi
6418 Patriot Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2178	$3,200	$1.47	46d	1	1.35mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	46d	1	1.35mi
3607 W Michigan Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.37mi
6606 Colony Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1993	$2,600	$1.30	46d	1	1.45mi
6615 Colony Rd Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,900	$1.51	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   status $242,500 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $242,500 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,500 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,500 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $242,500 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $242,500 Active
19. 2022-02-23
    soldstatus
20. 1989-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,438 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,400/yr (+$117/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,584
• − Property taxes: −$3,038
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$7,055
• Taxable loss: −$2,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $2,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $242,500 PBBOR
• 2022-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,038 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.