Is Plan Belmont Plan in Celina, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-859/mo modeled cash flow at a $482,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan Belmont Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,453/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.12

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Schools +5.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
Rent growth +1.3/5.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$482,990

Plan Belmont Plan · Celina, TX 75009

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,454 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Enter into the Belmont. This inviting two-story floor plan is designed for modern living, featuring a seamless blend of comfort and functionality. The first floor boasts an open-concept kitchen with a central island, flowing into the dining area and spacious family room, which opens to a cozy patio for outdoor enjoyment. A study provides a quiet space for work or reading, while bedroom two is conveniently located near a full bathroom. The two-car garage offers ample storage and parking. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat with an ensuite bathroom. A versatile loft area provides additional living space, and bedrooms three and four share access to a full bathroom. The open-to-below design enhances the sense of space and connection throughout the home, making it ideal for family living.

Key facts

Central island
Open-concept kitchen
Versatile loft area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $483k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (18.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (28.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $345k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($425k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $345,272 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.31%
Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $518,949
List price: $482,990
Delta: -6.93%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2628 Muirwood Way	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	83
1604 Victoria Pl	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	81
1629 Asbury Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,579 (+5%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	81
2736 Acadia Mews	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	80
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	78
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,321 (-5%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	74
2118 Newhall Rd	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+0%)	2mo	$495,000	$201	71
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,447 (-0%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	68
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,429 (-1%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	64
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,671 (+9%)	1mo	$575,000	$215	60
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+0%)	5mo	$565,475	$229	59
2434 Plumeria Ln	0.23mi	4/4.0	2,784 (+13%)	8mo	$589,990	$212	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.0%
Equity multiple: -0.02×
Total profit: $-148,849
Equity at exit: $77,377

10-year hold

IRR: -57.9%
Equity multiple: -0.64×
Total profit: $-238,930
Equity at exit: $44,869

Cash invested: $145,306 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 123 active · 18 under contract
Months of supply: 41.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $544,990 ($217/sqft)
Median days on market: 267 d
This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

Home prices YoY: -23.1%
Rents YoY: -4.6%
Active inventory: 3407
Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,453 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,721
Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,784/yr
Insurance: −$216
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
Net cashflow: $-859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,540

Max offer price $394,695

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-679	+0% $-859	+5% $-1,038	+10% $-1,217
Rent	-10% $-1,131	-5% $-995	+0% $-859	+5% $-722	+10% $-586
Rate	-1.0pp $-597	-0.5pp $-727	base $-859	+0.5pp $-993	+1.0pp $-1,130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $129,737
Closing costs: $15,568
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.11mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.11mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.13mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	92d	1	0.23mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.11mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.12mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.16mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.23mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.27mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.30mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.41mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$3,275	$2.36	3d	16	1.42mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	37d	1	1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	73d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $482,990 Active 267 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $482,990 Active 265 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $482,990 Active 264 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $482,990 Active 263 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $482,990 Active 262 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $482,990 Active 259 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $482,990 Active 258 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $482,990 Active 257 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $482,990 Active 256 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $482,990 Active 254 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $482,990 Active 252 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $482,990 Active 251 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $482,990 Active 250 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $482,990 Active 249 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $482,990 Active 248 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $482,990 Active 246 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $482,990 Active 245 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $482,990 Active 244 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $482,990 Active 243 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $482,990 Active 242 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $482,990 Active 241 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $482,990 Active 240 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $482,990 Active 239 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $482,990 Active 238 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $482,990 Active 237 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $482,990 Active 235 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $482,990 Active 234 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $482,990 Active 233 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $482,990 Active 232 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $482,990 Active 231 DOM
2026-07-02

pricedays on market $482,990 Active 230 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $479,990 Active 229 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $479,990 Active 228 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $479,990 Active 227 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $479,990 Active 226 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $479,990 Active 225 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $479,990 Active 224 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $479,990 Active 222 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $479,990 Active 220 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $479,990 Active 219 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $479,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $479,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $479,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $479,990 Active 213 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $479,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $479,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $479,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-06-07

pricedays on market $479,990 Active 205 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $476,990 Active 202 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $476,990 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $41,433
− Mortgage interest: −$29,069
− Property taxes: −$7,784
− Insurance: −$2,595
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,315
− Management: −$3,315
− Depreciation: −$15,097
Taxable loss: −$19,741

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,738
After-tax cash flow: $-5,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for rental properties. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Celina ISD
NCES district ID: 4813290
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $83,282
Composite: 50.49/100
National rank: #1853
State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

Score: 68/100
State rank: #450
US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Celina, TX
County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population: 34,260
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 34,260
Household income: $168,250
Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
Current HPI: 276.6307
Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-03-04 Relisted — Zillow
2026-03-04 Price Changed $476,990 Zillow
2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
2026-01-08 Price Changed $491,990 Zillow
2026-01-01 Price Changed $506,990 Zillow
2025-12-05 Price Changed $501,990 Zillow
2025-10-17 Listed $516,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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