5186 Greenberry Dr · Carmichael, CA 95841

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1974 $357/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Residing at 5186 Greenberry Dr in Sacramento, CA, USA, this residential property presents itself as a truly inviting home, ready for immediate enjoyment. The heart of this residence embraces an open floor plan, creating a spacious and welcoming environment where daily activities unfold with ease and comfort. Within this expansive setting, the kitchen features a practical peninsula, providing a versatile surface for culinary endeavors and casual gatherings alike, fostering a sense of togetherness within the living space. Beyond the interior, a private patio offers an ideal setting for moments of quiet reflection or outdoor enjoyment, extending the living area into the fresh air. This tranqui

Key facts

• $357 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Carmichael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#471 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A-, housing B+, employment B; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orangevale Open K-8 (572 students, 22% FRL); Winston Churchill Middle (935 students, 44% FRL); Mira Loma High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #34 of 1,170 statewide, top 3%, 1,678 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the San Juan Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,571 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,301
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-73,389
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95841

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$357
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $172,571

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-98	+0% $-155	+5% $-211	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-225	+0% $-155	+5% $-85	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-104	base $-155	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5755 Callie Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$2,000	$2.76	5d	13	0.22mi
5133 Connecticut Dr #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,495	$1.78	23d	1	0.22mi
5129 Connecticut Dr #1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	795	$1,595	$2.01	18d	1	0.22mi
5100 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	917	$1,970	$2.15	45d	1	0.33mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	45d	1	0.35mi
4789 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	6d	2	0.38mi
5121 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	813	$1,738	$2.14	25d	2	0.39mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	25d	1	0.40mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	6d	1	0.42mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	45d	1	0.43mi
4729 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,699	$2.39	6d	4	0.48mi
6005 Rye Way Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,895	$2.28	45d	1	0.49mi
5402 Mona Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$1,750	$2.03	23d	1	0.55mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	6d	1	0.59mi
5226 Hemlock St #35 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	682	$1,650	$2.42	25d	1	0.60mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	22d	5	0.63mi
5738 Windmill Way Carmichael, CA	1.0	1.0	652	$1,350	$2.07	4d	3	0.69mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	3d	2	0.71mi
4451 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	926	$1,800	$1.94	9d	1	0.79mi
4494 Mary Lynn Ln Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1062	$1,950	$1.84	5d	3	0.81mi
5012 Sunshine Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	12d	1	0.82mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,540	$1.68	3d	7	0.86mi
5500 Foothill Garden Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,472	$1.96	3d	2	0.89mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	45d	1	0.92mi
4930 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,450	$2.16	3d	1	0.92mi
5341 Walnut Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	3d	6	0.97mi
4219 Casa Blanca Ln Unit 4219 Carmichael, CA	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,850	$1.71	45d	1	1.03mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	3d	1	1.04mi
Venuto Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$2,095	$2.31	12d	2	1.04mi
4247 Hackberry Ln Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	912	$1,899	$2.08	4d	11	1.04mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	1.04mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	3d	1	1.07mi
4841 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	3d	1	1.08mi
4815 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,662	$1.66	9d	2	1.09mi
4806 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,338	$2.06	45d	1	1.13mi
4200 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	1.0	1.0	622	$1,365	$2.19	45d	3	1.13mi
5840 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,545	$1.82	3d	2	1.13mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5853-D Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,525	$1.67	18d	1	1.14mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5877-B Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,575	$1.72	18d	1	1.14mi
5008 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	3d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $357 · $4,284/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2004-09-24
   soldstatus $170,000
2. 1983-10-19
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$744/yr (+$62/mo · 95.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$4,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carmichael

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #15996

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmichael, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 61,440
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,500
• Household income: $61,054
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.82%
• Current HPI: 369.8991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+193.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.